Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa50873dfa24c687e181bcdc144ef328db59f25c659caf93f3f870ba484456d33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 1c | 1,702$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 779.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 35c | 599.28$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.83 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 437.51$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 410.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 13c | 304.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 242.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 237.5$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 229.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 227.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 198$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…f96fbacked Yes | 40c | 188.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.51 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 19c | 183.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 70c | 182.69$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 75c | 160.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 149.8$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 77c | 149.35$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 23c | 145.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes | 35c | 144.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 22c | 139.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 139.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 29c | 136.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 13c | 127.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 20c | 127.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 127.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 124.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 16c | 123.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…ab83backed Yes | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 17c | 111.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdcf…7e4cbacked No | 79c | 103.42$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 27c | 99.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 74c | 95.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc73d…565abacked Yes | 37c | 80.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 29c | 76.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 66c | 75.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 30c | 73.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 20c | 70.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e0…19ccbacked Yes | 29c | 67.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c36…e462backed Yes | 29c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3230…7566backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 21c | 55.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 52.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba21…1122backed No | 76c | 48.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 23c | 47.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 22c | 45.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 65c | 44.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 71c | 41.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 40.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74f…25c0backed No | 70c | 40.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 32c | 40.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked No | 66c | 39.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 25.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 69c | 24.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 72c | 21.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 74c | 20.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 19.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 78c | 15.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.