Middle East · resolved market
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73e599a5a987ee9f739d1634d89aef38f55571e64630edf8a3b71f7d428583ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde87…11a2backed No | 32c | 2,083$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.91 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eba…217ebacked No | 74c | 2,038$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…b5c9backed Yes | 41c | 1,898$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.64 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…e7ebbacked No | 41c | 1,535$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.59 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 42c | 752.89$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.04 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2948…788abacked Yes | 36c | 652.07$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +8.0wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 52c | 612.35$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.2 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 79c | 531.59$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.14 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd50d…a815backed Yes | 63c | 466.26$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 42c | 442.89$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.19 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…ed51backed Yes | 63c | 406.02$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed No | 33c | 395.94$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.25 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 21c | 380$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 338.91$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.86 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 59c | 300.05$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.44 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 38c | 264.22$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 43c | 250$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…505fbacked Yes | 65c | 232.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 71c | 220$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.8 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 219.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 212$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0712…c38abacked No | 60c | 211.36$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 210.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc4…5f8abacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91cb…3c4dbacked Yes | 15c | 199.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 32c | 195.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557e…5007backed No | 36c | 193.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.89 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f85…2b60backed No | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes | 30c | 154.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 145.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 31c | 140.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.42 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 28c | 133.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.98 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 45c | 129.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 23c | 123.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.86 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 73c | 107.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Yes | 61c | 103.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc147…6700backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 31c | 99.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 28c | 99.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 21c | 94.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 36c | 94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes | 56c | 88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 78.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9830…4cc0backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…cbc8backed No | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 25c | 56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +12.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 57c | 55.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed Yes | 79c | 49.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1f…6739backed Yes | 69c | 47.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fc…4ed7backed No | 36c | 46.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe63b…f734backed Yes | 78c | 45.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 43.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 68c | 41.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2d…de68backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…96cfbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…1a36backed Yes | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4b…0b44backed Yes | 42c | 38.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 63c | 37.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x81bc…2364backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 62c | 29.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…f36bbacked Yes | 72c | 27.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 69c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 46c | 24.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…a23fbacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked No | 61c | 22.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…a8a8backed No | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb88…b60abacked Yes | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…2f49backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee2…0c91backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0d…59dabacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…ed1cbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…d3a5backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 64c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f48…ec6ebacked Yes | 79c | 12.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0d…4b95backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31?No won
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by May 31?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.