Middle East · resolved market
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf08efdf84d24228967df34cad753244b543af9df38799c0a965658ac8f2d5c13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde87…11a2backed No | 9c | 2,866$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.72 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 75c | 1,633$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.45 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 8c | 1,497$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375.47 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 9c | 1,003$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Yes | 35c | 873.6$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.61 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +121%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eba…217ebacked No | 58c | 864.57$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…b725backed No | 5c | 630$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 11cpaid | +790.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe63b…f734backed Yes | 64c | 608.81$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 11c | 600$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 63c | 506.94$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.05 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 51c | 457.09$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.58 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4314backed No | 4c | 447.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.67 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 1cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 27c | 443.54$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.54 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2948…788abacked Yes | 22c | 403.4$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +8.0wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 8c | 332.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.36 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 329.73$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.08 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…7328backed No | 22c | 311.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 62c | 286.38$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.75 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 41c | 261.2$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 17c | 260.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.22 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 67c | 231.37$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.81 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed70…04cebacked No | 17c | 229.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 226.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.22 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 223.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 7c | 216.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9830…4cc0backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.86 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 41cpaid | +230.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 10c | 180$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.03 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…b5c9backed Yes | 29c | 177.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 10c | 161.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.26 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 144.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdc65…e355backed Yes | 30c | 122.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0712…c38abacked Yes | 59c | 117.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 37c | 115.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…cbc8backed No | 20c | 99.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 16c | 92.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e87…3534backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 51c | 51.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…ed51backed Yes | 27c | 47.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 65c | 45.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 80c | 34.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 60c | 26.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 71c | 23.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b30…100fbacked No | 70c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31?No won
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by May 31?Yes won
- Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.