Middle East · resolved market
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82328689cf7f76da4029df8671057b126ca33334d7a05ef71924f5973d42ee4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2086…8ef7backed No | 74c | 4,783$3,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,263.47 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 74c | 1,766$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.86 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed Yes | 28c | 1,590$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +121%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eba…217ebacked Yes | 44c | 1,116$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e87…3534backed Yes | 15c | 1,011$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.08 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 35c | 892.3$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.13 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 40c | 787.27$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.91 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…2a67backed Yes | 43c | 588.88$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.98 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…7328backed Yes | 28c | 521$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 31c | 490.88$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.38 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 21c | 389.84$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed Yes | 30c | 332.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes | 24c | 310$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 24c | 305$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff8…5fd6backed No | 70c | 300.94$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 21cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2d…601bbacked Yes | 22c | 299$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e4…ed51backed No | 76c | 227.61$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked No | 60c | 226.57$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…099dbacked No | 74c | 193.85$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…b5c9backed No | 61c | 191.54$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 15c | 180.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 23c | 170$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 19c | 169.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 22c | 146.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…9212backed No | 74c | 144.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 78c | 133.43$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6345…6718backed Yes | 17c | 119.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 29c | 116.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 116$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 37c | 109.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed Yes | 25c | 106.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 15c | 96.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 30c | 95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 36c | 86.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 20c | 77.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…79cbbacked Yes | 16c | 76.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 99 | 81.8%81 W · 18 L | +9.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 25c | 66.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 78c | 57.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 43c | 52.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…1a2cbacked Yes | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 25c | 41.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 69c | 39.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd64d…9138backed Yes | 33c | 32.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 73c | 21.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba0c…d35bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 68c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31?this page
- Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31?No won
- Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by May 31?No won
- Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by May 31?Yes won
- Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?No won
- Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.