Commodities · resolved market
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a4e2896a318755e419acbeb8f5896ce06715fd2e5ebf35c27602a51b1a891b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $621,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $531,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $621,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 11c | 53,605$6,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,074.93 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce3…966bbacked Yes | 7c | 31,355$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 18c | 25,882$4,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,586.77 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 6c | 25,519$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x227e…e118backed Yes | 21c | 12,056$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…f03fbacked Yes | 5c | 10,792$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes | 10c | 10,518$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d8…5f64backed Yes | 6c | 10,258$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…c2bfbacked Yes | 6c | 8,500$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.39 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 0c | 8,213$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…89bbbacked Yes | 14c | 7,791$1,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…acf2backed Yes | 10c | 7,191$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 75c | 6,900$5,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,697.01 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 6c | 6,337$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.96 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked No | 68c | 5,928$4,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,907.3 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 0c | 5,430$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 79c | 5,424$4,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 1c | 5,067$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 4,771$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.86 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 5c | 4,120$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.16 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…2fddbacked Yes | 6c | 4,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…9e4bbacked Yes | 19c | 3,746$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed No | 68c | 3,263$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 19c | 3,206$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.28 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80e…ae2fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,177$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 23c | 3,158$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.36 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…3ae9backed Yes | 12c | 3,010$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 76c | 2,970$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.86 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 16c | 2,929$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.81 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed No | 72c | 2,796$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 9c | 2,771$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.35 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,588$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 13c | 2,553$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.24 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 21c | 2,493$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.22 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 6c | 2,457$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.77 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,419$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,259$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed Yes | 19c | 2,097$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,045$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.98 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.73 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e88…df66backed Yes | 25c | 1,980$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 8c | 1,958$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 11c | 1,857$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.59 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,781$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.74 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 7c | 1,700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 1,627$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 22c | 1,623$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 19c | 1,606$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.49 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 79c | 1,603$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 21c | 1,557$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.99 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 22c | 1,526$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,526$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed No | 57c | 1,482$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,475$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99aa…522abacked Yes | 1c | 1,458$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…f103backed Yes | 28c | 1,433$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes | 20c | 1,405$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa789…7000backed Yes | 16c | 1,340$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked No | 78c | 1,325$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 50c | 1,300$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.89 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 34c | 1,275$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…faf5backed Yes | 25c | 1,268$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 23c | 1,264$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 24c | 1,205$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.48 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d19…8f93backed Yes | 9c | 1,138$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c03ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,108$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 21c | 1,100$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.53 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4aa…d040backed Yes | 36c | 1,045$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…89d8backed Yes | 19c | 1,017$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 79c | 1,012$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.13 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0797…9d32backed Yes | 7c | 983.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 7c | 982.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 13c | 955.74$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7446…8368backed Yes | 24c | 945.34$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 918.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x456e…a6e9backed Yes | 10c | 860$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 855$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 2c | 851.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…7e6dbacked Yes | 6c | 846.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd6…f74bbacked Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 831.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…15f9backed Yes | 27c | 823$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc190…312ebacked Yes | 7c | 821.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 19c | 803.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.12 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45f6…4bfdbacked Yes | 19c | 793.63$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 775.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5547…3d0cbacked Yes | 26c | 756.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 755$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0e…6ebfbacked Yes | 23c | 752.54$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked No | 79c | 750$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 22c | 737.19$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.43 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 7c | 700$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 691.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 6c | 682.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…a50bbacked Yes | 4c | 680.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 669.46$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.47 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed Yes | 19c | 650$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…b4f0backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.