Commodities · resolved market
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd18ed6ef65bfa1b2c93c72998f026d8c3ae53a41f80231f07063e0d2d2c6dd47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $697,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $660,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $697,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 322 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 5c | 32,952$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728.17 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 28,884$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 25,143$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.71 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 8c | 19,301$1,573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.61 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed Yes | 16c | 17,297$2,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,726.38 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 6c | 12,571$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.69 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…4605backed Yes | 10c | 12,507$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 10,243$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.02 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 23c | 7,687$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 79c | 7,244$5,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.08 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…b9a4backed Yes | 8c | 7,054$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,581$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 9c | 6,446$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.43 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 20c | 6,140$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.35 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked Yes | 2c | 5,982$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 31cpaid | +76%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 5,565$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.45 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 21c | 5,430$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 77c | 5,083$3,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca4…f852backed Yes | 1c | 4,870$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 13c | 4,754$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.63 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…d013backed Yes | 24c | 4,404$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 9c | 3,487$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb772…7b07backed Yes | 14c | 3,030$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 22c | 2,785$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.36 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 2,631$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.38 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 6c | 2,572$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.48 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 10c | 2,553$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.57 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…825abacked Yes | 33c | 2,500$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 5c | 2,478$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.85 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…fd67backed Yes | 12c | 2,456$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…bbd8backed Yes | 30c | 2,428$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 2,376$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.32 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe491…b4d7backed Yes | 11c | 2,341$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,337$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 13c | 2,170$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.35 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f58…62a5backed Yes | 33c | 2,118$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 2,108$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 2,097$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.56 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,870$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 47c | 1,866$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.54 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 5c | 1,830$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,823$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.97 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 19c | 1,813$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.09 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b4…4d48backed Yes | 7c | 1,800$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 2c | 1,800$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes | 7c | 1,778$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 5c | 1,755$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,731$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,694$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 16c | 1,659$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.15 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 13c | 1,657$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.99 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb969…089ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,625$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 23c | 1,577$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb1…ecdbbacked Yes | 19c | 1,573$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 77c | 1,545$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…dee8backed Yes | 10c | 1,488$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 7c | 1,476$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,417$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.52 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…aa34backed Yes | 3c | 1,371$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,356$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…89bbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,329$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…f628backed Yes | 7c | 1,253$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,252$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…c7e7backed Yes | 8c | 1,251$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091f…672ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,224$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 4c | 1,171$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 53 | 0%0 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 3c | 1,122$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc190…312ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,114$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…1d98backed Yes | 9c | 1,108$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 11c | 1,099$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 14c | 1,055$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 21c | 997.02$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5c27backed Yes | 31c | 983.52$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 25c | 967.26$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.24 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 13c | 953.26$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.88 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 14c | 952.13$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 52c | 921.15$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.17 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 20c | 911.92$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.61 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 14c | 910.48$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…c61fbacked Yes | 9c | 903.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c4…4c8bbacked Yes | 12c | 899.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 19c | 897.65$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.93 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x214d…3ce9backed Yes | 5c | 888$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 2c | 836.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 10c | 821.26$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.88 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d7…11b2backed Yes | 15c | 800.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 14c | 800$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…faf5backed Yes | 13c | 767.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c1…c807backed Yes | 15c | 724.27$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed No | 78c | 716.18$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 3c | 713.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf29…c631backed Yes | 10c | 711.29$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe673…b3d9backed Yes | 28c | 699.96$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked Yes | 8c | 690.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45f6…4bfdbacked Yes | 33c | 689.11$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 687.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 19c | 668.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.16 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?this page
- Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.