TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Upof Up, Down
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$91,295
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$85,425

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,295 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdef6…f63abacked Down50c13,366$6,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,737850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e9…f1bcbacked Down8c6,908$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05dd…e2afbacked Up46c4,532$2,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,437.7214143.3%61 W · 80 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf6…ceb2backed Up47c2,863$1,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.51346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1088…a9b9backed Down66c2,511$1,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2651…3471backed Up49c2,365$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.1330443.4%132 W · 172 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed Down47c1,864$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.741526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-41.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Down11c1,739$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.855315.1%8 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Down5c1,218$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.354520%9 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+72.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Up42c1,168$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.4621011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e9…5b91backed Up50c1,111$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+56.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6776…d21abacked Up50c1,111$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x144f…41b6backed Up50c1,111$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61cb…5e13backed Up50c1,111$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick62cpaid+68.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3f6…2348backed Up50c1,111$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3442…61c2backed Up50c1,111$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2881…e7a6backed Up49c1,111$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dd…b598backed Up49c900$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4551100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Down49c803.97$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.236129.5%18 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xff30…a976backed Up50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc23…730cbacked Down3c787.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-59.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc93b…9e73backed Up56c717.37$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.51154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Down2c712.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.11824.9%4 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb44e…681abacked Up53c625.75$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa20…fd0dbacked Down15c606.85$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.43714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-68.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed Up49c600$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3061136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-43.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dde…d725backed Down6c599.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.751741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+27.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb20…3b5cbacked Up50c550$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab33…cf5dbacked Up39c529.06$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.821376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.28per pick49cpaid+41.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b7a…5261backed Down48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked Down48c479.2$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.022630.8%8 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2498…91b1backed Down5c473.1$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdac5…ae24backed Up62c473$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9119855.6%110 W · 88 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Down7c465.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.211884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae46…a663backed Down31c449.98$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.841931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-43.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf912…007dbacked Down13c420.59$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…50aebacked Down3c407.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b35…d32abacked Down23c361.19$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7c…b0ecbacked Up53c340.97$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.464100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+83.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6119…346ebacked Down6c320.67$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Down48c304.98$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.391127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-52.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Down6c301.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.061212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x48bb…1d9ebacked Down47c300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14160%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb1bc…71b3backed Down8c297.22$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.81650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Down5c292.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.272324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x608e…d69abacked Up47c288.79$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.93333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e83…1467backed Up52c250.02$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe15e…d4f8backed Down48c240.2$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.3742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-36.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf665…0f03backed Down58c220$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5568…5716backed Down57c220$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x798c…7ff6backed Down48c220$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-48.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5341…92d6backed Down8c217.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed Down25c212.1$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8711838.1%45 W · 73 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Up50c202.17$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0935334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e71…be4cbacked Up55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+31%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa79d…0081backed Up35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick50cpaid+60%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f6b…e0c0backed Up39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad8…c703backed Down48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf2…8555backed Down48c199.99$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae69…65c9backed Down49c191.84$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8c…b2eebacked Down26c184.83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.582231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x131c…6816backed Up68c172.84$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.612951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c59…8831backed Down48c169.48$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-55.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94fb…1a8bbacked Down10c167.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce4e…fe29backed Up53c163.43$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Up78c150.14$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.031346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-31.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd98…1211backed Down15c150$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Down48c147.87$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9815446.8%72 W · 82 L+17.9wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+69.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x571e…67b2backed Down47c146.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.721957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x385e…3896backed Down47c146.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.711952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b8…47f4backed Up56c145.92$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.681338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Down17c133.45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2323323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64da…fc36backed Up76c114.21$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.891181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+37.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1826…690dbacked Down10c111.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x82bd…5acbbacked Down57c108$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.56757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0a…50adbacked Up77c105.02$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.66988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick63cpaid+47.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d61…1fa7backed Down65c100.81$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.526443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc1…9c55backed Down49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2402…2bfcbacked Down48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x158f…2bb3backed Down36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa069…32edbacked Up51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73f9…b9aabacked Up52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x399c…ed11backed Down49c95.92$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-68%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e45…1efbbacked Down65c91.93$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.751533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd5eb…9120backed Down48c90.18$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-64.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1851…7016backed Up50c87.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443066.7%20 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+75.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x060a…fa8fbacked Down22c83.66$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6688…fdcebacked Up39c80.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.381241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc40…4ce9backed Up63c76.52$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Up65c76.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.821050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaec…34e1backed Up41c66.79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+142.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Up72c63.52$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.082657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7838…3e84backed Up50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-34.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a95…2551backed Down23c55.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+59.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked Up51c51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.993839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43e2…5fbdbacked Up67c50.43$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.744645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf806…ac4ebacked Down48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc1f…5c76backed Down48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Down66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ab3…43abbacked Down48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.