World Politics · resolved market
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f1813724d4e7a7e0fcf83187fc23a1f68887f317d2d0cc6eeb1566d5ef658d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $409,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $357,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $409,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 427 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 53c | 35,093$18,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,748.18 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fee…ed5ebacked No | 45c | 27,337$12,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,011.01 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…3f66backed Yes | 23c | 14,608$3,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,330.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed No | 46c | 10,781$4,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,838.57 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 52c | 8,314$4,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,358.78 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 46c | 7,326$3,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,334 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed9…ca97backed Yes | 33c | 7,045$2,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,292.38 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1b…9af9backed Yes | 24c | 6,310$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48f1…4d49backed No | 50c | 5,110$2,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,546.69 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7664…2e50backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 26c | 4,714$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.47 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c17…8372backed Yes | 40c | 4,601$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.77 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 34c | 4,478$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.02 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 60c | 4,345$2,607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,606.89 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 62c | 3,688$2,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.02 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63cf…52b4backed Yes | 38c | 3,555$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 23c | 3,469$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.36 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2c…f823backed No | 41c | 3,037$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,787.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abd…1608backed Yes | 36c | 2,422$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 63c | 2,181$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.79 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 2,141$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.4 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 33c | 2,006$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,000$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.62 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes | 71c | 1,920$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364.49 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,859$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.28 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,849$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.63 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 1,821$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.53 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…aecebacked Yes | 32c | 1,793$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 32c | 1,729$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed69…de01backed Yes | 41c | 1,684$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…866fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,675$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 1,532$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.84 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked No | 74c | 1,500$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 10c | 1,470$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…95c4backed Yes | 30c | 1,208$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed Yes | 78c | 1,208$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.99 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a76…53debacked Yes | 41c | 1,205$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4823…644cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,153$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 18c | 1,135$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.22 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d8…31cfbacked No | 59c | 1,107$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…ae09backed Yes | 62c | 1,100$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…48c1backed No | 68c | 1,020$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…34b9backed Yes | 54c | 1,016$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed No | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6375…476abacked Yes | 34c | 972.6$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…ec51backed Yes | 20c | 963.21$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 11c | 961.34$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.17 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…2b75backed Yes | 39c | 932.15$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 931.21$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.08 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…cfcebacked Yes | 16c | 913.81$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…6244backed Yes | 17c | 909.52$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…d8cbbacked Yes | 22c | 878.63$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 14c | 834.65$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1a…54febacked Yes | 23c | 825.15$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b3…4dcbbacked Yes | 13c | 818.4$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc70…4ac2backed Yes | 25c | 809.07$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2821…399ebacked No | 68c | 800$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 21c | 799.76$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.26 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…f919backed Yes | 41c | 775.3$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 755.19$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.42 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 22c | 717.59$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.19 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…da90backed Yes | 31c | 709.46$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.79 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed Yes | 17c | 702.59$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…6d7abacked Yes | 43c | 697.41$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 13c | 693.33$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 680.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc50…7e68backed Yes | 12c | 661.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 64c | 637$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.64 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…f61ebacked Yes | 17c | 636.21$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 18c | 610$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.99 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee6…a733backed Yes | 25c | 607.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed No | 66c | 606.23$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.73 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 72c | 600$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…db9fbacked Yes | 33c | 597.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed No | 57c | 593$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed Yes | 42c | 570.48$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…6342backed Yes | 72c | 562.31$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc370…440fbacked Yes | 38c | 559.13$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 21c | 557.91$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.56 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb053…bcdebacked Yes | 42c | 539.09$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2254…3e9cbacked Yes | 33c | 531.99$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…0f54backed Yes | 24c | 523.34$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f8…a837backed Yes | 44c | 521.23$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…d0fdbacked Yes | 37c | 520.19$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed Yes | 34c | 500.27$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.63 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +6.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +92%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…a69ebacked Yes | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 497.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.34 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 77c | 489.53$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.99 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 474$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266d…083fbacked Yes | 34c | 460.38$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df1…8fe1backed Yes | 16c | 458.31$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked No | 68c | 445.67$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +125.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 25c | 437.77$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc60a…0493backed Yes | 69c | 437.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 75c | 430.83$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.75 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe694…7e7cbacked No | 65c | 429.95$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 38c | 423$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.84 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 71c | 420$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 34c | 410$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 27c | 406.59$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?this page
- Will Alfonso López Chau and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Alfonso López Chau and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Alfonso López Chau and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga and Alfonso López Chau advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?No won
- Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.