World Politics · resolved market
Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc44c9edbe90c66b4fa4e2151bbbf9bd044e3953aa08d231899da7877b81e98d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $209,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e92…917dbacked Yes | 1c | 16,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 7c | 14,021$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.49 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 7,698$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.08 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 6,958$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +239.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 1c | 4,765$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,708$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.65 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,396$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefef…3702backed Yes | 5c | 2,942$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f1…4d49backed Yes | 10c | 2,653$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63cf…52b4backed Yes | 2c | 2,641$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e43…00d8backed Yes | 5c | 2,637$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed69…de01backed Yes | 3c | 2,486$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed Yes | 2c | 2,385$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,379$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…d315backed Yes | 5c | 2,275$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x818a…7220backed Yes | 5c | 2,155$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b2…e13ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,085$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +396.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…89e8backed Yes | 9c | 1,957$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,915$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb0…25c4backed Yes | 4c | 1,861$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,746$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…da91backed Yes | 1c | 1,598$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb053…bcdebacked Yes | 3c | 1,512$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…afa6backed Yes | 2c | 1,479$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x619c…2877backed Yes | 4c | 1,400$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…ceedbacked Yes | 4c | 1,381$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,318$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,301$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c92…7260backed Yes | 4c | 1,262$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2c…f823backed Yes | 2c | 1,259$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f4…547bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,244$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1926…f0d3backed Yes | 5c | 1,229$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed Yes | 13c | 1,099$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 3c | 1,064$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac7…2df0backed Yes | 4c | 1,064$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9a…b10fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,054$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…bef8backed Yes | 5c | 780$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 771.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 2c | 768.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 4c | 748$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb5…91b6backed Yes | 4c | 721$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…0f8abacked Yes | 4c | 700$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047e…a19cbacked Yes | 2c | 653.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf434…7552backed Yes | 4c | 653$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 650.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf1…a317backed Yes | 2c | 635.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 634.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 167 | 6.6%11 W · 156 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…8f93backed Yes | 8c | 630.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 4c | 608.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 530.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 2c | 515.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6071…e933backed Yes | 5c | 502.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 5c | 463.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd80b…2e95backed Yes | 6c | 446.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -68%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ff…d779backed Yes | 6c | 343.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed Yes | 6c | 339.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x149b…d435backed Yes | 4c | 304.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 12c | 300.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…6b68backed Yes | 6c | 271.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 230.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…e014backed Yes | 5c | 214.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf973…653fbacked Yes | 5c | 209.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed Yes | 6c | 171.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 40c | 138.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…47f4backed Yes | 10c | 135$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 18c | 102.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 57c | 55.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?this page
- Will Alfonso López Chau and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Alfonso López Chau and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Alfonso López Chau and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga and Alfonso López Chau advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?No won
- Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.