World Politics · resolved market
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x756a30c26d295fadcdcbd8914f439dc03ac45dda20d39921277b712fc73f35d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $312,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $315,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fee…ed5ebacked Yes | 47c | 17,179$8,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,140.01 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 16,961$11,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,998.92 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48f1…4d49backed Yes | 49c | 13,200$6,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,731.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 62c | 9,656$5,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,716.44 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…3f66backed Yes | 70c | 8,606$6,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,582.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 75c | 7,667$5,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.04 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 69c | 7,356$5,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,274.41 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc668…4f06backed Yes | 8c | 7,243$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,697.81 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f7…afa6backed Yes | 43c | 6,137$2,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,526.78 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7664…2e50backed No | 10c | 4,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 33c | 3,780$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,531.48 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 62c | 2,888$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.97 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 42c | 2,730$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.2 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…63d2backed Yes | 76c | 2,538$1,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 47c | 2,498$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.45 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked Yes | 35c | 2,009$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.47 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2130…b7e0backed Yes | 20c | 1,975$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 77c | 1,964$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.37 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…6ccdbacked Yes | 79c | 1,648$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed Yes | 15c | 1,622$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,547$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.72 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -80%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…8112backed Yes | 73c | 1,495$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,477$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.47 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +239.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1b…9af9backed No | 18c | 1,465$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 10c | 1,382$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.22 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 20c | 1,339$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 57c | 1,335$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.91 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 56c | 1,316$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.63 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…9062backed Yes | 53c | 1,254$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.06 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2c…f823backed Yes | 78c | 1,243$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…2e9dbacked No | 11c | 1,141$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 70c | 1,110$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.32 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…6c4ebacked Yes | 77c | 999.68$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed Yes | 7c | 901.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.82 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…95e5backed Yes | 28c | 894.94$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +148.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 26c | 855.03$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.55 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 67c | 761.9$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.79 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 703.42$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.1 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…84bfbacked No | 20c | 699.96$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 68c | 615$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.92 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 57c | 599.92$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.1 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5a…2e45backed No | 26c | 575.17$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.46 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 64c | 563.32$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.56 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 43c | 533.74$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.72 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 23c | 526.14$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.19 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…bd68backed No | 19c | 511.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff3b…dbc5backed No | 60c | 480.98$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked Yes | 25c | 479.47$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.06 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 67c | 474$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 19c | 466.03$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.02 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 76c | 460$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…6ab2backed Yes | 75c | 457.68$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.74 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed No | 21c | 425.25$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed Yes | 73c | 420$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +6.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +92%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…9043backed Yes | 71c | 418.53$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…6f7abacked No | 31c | 417.13$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.47 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ceb…23f3backed Yes | 44c | 416.9$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.34 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb053…bcdebacked Yes | 21c | 394.24$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…e937backed Yes | 49c | 389.99$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.34 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 76c | 389.99$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 26c | 380.03$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.04 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b4…415cbacked No | 27c | 373.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 74c | 361.58$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 77c | 337.71$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 71c | 331.87$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 77c | 331.5$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.82 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 30c | 317.88$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.94 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +11.1wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…85fabacked No | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 33c | 296.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 55c | 285.61$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.14 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…b95fbacked Yes | 62c | 285.11$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 6c | 279.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb86…1dc5backed Yes | 56c | 278.74$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 275.65$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.46 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 40c | 273.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.82 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130c…0d78backed Yes | 65c | 263.61$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 36c | 252.22$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…48c1backed Yes | 59c | 252$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8092…b8a2backed Yes | 39c | 251.59$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.59 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed Yes | 61c | 246.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 245.78$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 60c | 238.62$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 233.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…23c8backed Yes | 76c | 230$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 61c | 228.16$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +52%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…7a04backed Yes | 78c | 216.62$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 31c | 206.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 41c | 205.58$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…ab6ebacked Yes | 47c | 203.63$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 66c | 202.34$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.26 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x516c…8bb5backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf134…47c8backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +361.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 42c | 199.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 45c | 199.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.64 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 23c | 194.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.45 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe034…5f9ebacked Yes | 78c | 193.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?this page
- Will Alfonso López Chau and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Alfonso López Chau and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Alfonso López Chau and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga and Alfonso López Chau advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.