AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6047ba3cf0ea637922d07cbd6dc835ee2c9859644f0bb744758b2b11aaf030b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 11,197$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.67 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 79c | 5,909$4,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.84 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 16c | 4,292$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.41 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 2c | 2,517$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 13c | 1,633$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.68 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 1,449$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 12c | 1,441$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.15 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 19c | 1,356$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 11c | 1,315$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.22 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 3c | 1,304$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 1,257$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.84 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 76c | 1,173$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.57 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 9c | 1,144$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92cc…779dbacked No | 24c | 1,094$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 74c | 1,091$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.49 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5489…1633backed Yes | 75c | 1,061$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 72c | 1,018$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.7 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No | 21c | 968.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 16c | 764.94$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…b3a6backed Yes | 76c | 756$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed No | 35c | 751.3$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.67 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 728.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 66c | 602.6$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 23c | 582.2$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.84 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 9c | 548.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 15c | 535.45$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…5cffbacked Yes | 78c | 470.21$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.84 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 71c | 433$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.57 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 26c | 426.01$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a2…5840backed Yes | 80c | 422.79$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked No | 10c | 399.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d8…b773backed No | 12c | 384.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0ef9backed Yes | 57c | 356.67$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…863bbacked Yes | 49c | 341.19$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.01 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked No | 9c | 339.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…d8f1backed Yes | 76c | 336.51$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked No | 11c | 312.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 4c | 304.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfe…7c31backed Yes | 71c | 282$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…5601backed No | 35c | 280$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…fe22backed Yes | 74c | 268.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed Yes | 75c | 267.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.72 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 75c | 267.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…cbc8backed Yes | 72c | 263.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 5c | 260.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…76aebacked No | 10c | 252.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48f…4ae5backed No | 27c | 240$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 18c | 239.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 8c | 237.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 225.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked No | 15c | 224.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00c…0f71backed Yes | 54c | 221.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6078…dbaebacked Yes | 73c | 209.75$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 7c | 208.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 10c | 208.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 49c | 204.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked No | 33c | 202.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14eb…b7f6backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…2198backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 19c | 195.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…07febacked Yes | 78c | 192.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 19c | 182.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 26c | 180.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 45c | 172.91$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 31c | 172.47$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 74c | 150$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb711…1a27backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 73c | 143.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…1b4ebacked No | 10c | 141.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 14c | 140.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 24c | 138.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…7249backed Yes | 51c | 125$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 21cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ba…348cbacked No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…b8abbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…b1aabacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…f683backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6020…e249backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 25c | 99.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…ff1dbacked No | 26c | 99.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…c92cbacked No | 35c | 99.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 71c | 95.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c61…aeb5backed Yes | 74c | 95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4a…fad9backed Yes | 54c | 92.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 12c | 89.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…8897backed No | 26c | 84.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2600…ebebbacked No | 18c | 82.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…2e61backed No | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…07f2backed Yes | 69c | 72.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3933…7818backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x654f…61eebacked Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2243…1ecebacked Yes | 73c | 65.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +262.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…6cb4backed Yes | 70c | 63.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.