AI · resolved market
Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a75e4a0535c1ed08877f4352ded4a4e2fa4c8438841d6732a99b03486926f87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $140,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 14,309$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,698$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 10,368$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 6,936$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…57e9backed Yes | 3c | 1,971$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…d6dbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,957$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dad…7ad5backed Yes | 3c | 1,876$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,754$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…4a5fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,736$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96fa…89ffbacked Yes | 3c | 1,453$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…e3b2backed Yes | 3c | 1,405$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac9…7f22backed Yes | 3c | 1,318$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 2c | 1,249$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf619…fcbbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,137$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…f6d3backed Yes | 3c | 902$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 899.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 2c | 863.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d94…57fbbacked Yes | 3c | 853$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…b6d6backed Yes | 3c | 803$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0720…26d6backed Yes | 3c | 678$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec29…b38bbacked Yes | 3c | 462$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.