AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6396bece754c8401ae3873dd9586c94991f6eee6f37349e3747b3be269cc0c8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $226,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 18,193$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 12,835$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 63 | 0%0 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 11,889$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.49 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,162$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,993$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.35 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 3c | 3,118$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…364fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,699$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…abfebacked Yes | 7c | 2,623$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b54…37f2backed Yes | 8c | 2,547$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca6…3dcfbacked Yes | 7c | 2,529$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 5c | 2,345$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.66 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…06c2backed Yes | 7c | 1,800$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 3c | 1,786$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094b…141dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,710$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,692$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…6b99backed Yes | 7c | 1,617$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d32…6ea2backed Yes | 7c | 1,615$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…cccebacked Yes | 8c | 1,547$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…4aa6backed Yes | 8c | 1,456$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd357…cd28backed Yes | 1c | 1,383$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa873…b8d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,258$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…ae6abacked Yes | 7c | 1,039$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa148…279ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,033$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd923…ef6fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,027$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7477…812dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,021$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…851dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,006$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2234backed Yes | 7c | 1,001$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…0617backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 2c | 985.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 954.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…6062backed Yes | 7c | 939$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…a083backed Yes | 7c | 923$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…da9bbacked Yes | 7c | 917$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…2028backed Yes | 7c | 903$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ef…0ddcbacked Yes | 7c | 900$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7092…d4b5backed Yes | 7c | 888$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…3f89backed Yes | 7c | 883$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…d05dbacked Yes | 7c | 834$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa007…95cdbacked Yes | 7c | 831$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…ee1cbacked Yes | 7c | 827$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd671…9facbacked Yes | 7c | 819$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…9bf1backed Yes | 7c | 800$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 799.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7094…2770backed Yes | 7c | 790$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d4…aa9fbacked Yes | 7c | 765$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c96…f720backed Yes | 7c | 756$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…4a9dbacked Yes | 7c | 756$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…4a1abacked Yes | 7c | 753$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…658cbacked Yes | 8c | 742$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…984ebacked Yes | 7c | 739$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…dbf9backed Yes | 8c | 735$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1896…9751backed Yes | 7c | 716$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac34…7833backed Yes | 7c | 713$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbb…3eb0backed Yes | 7c | 704$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…fbaebacked Yes | 8c | 701$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabca…413dbacked Yes | 7c | 689$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 4c | 663.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed0…b808backed Yes | 8c | 645$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…01e3backed Yes | 8c | 642$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2147…6fd0backed Yes | 7c | 637$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe147…8ac6backed Yes | 7c | 627$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 3c | 615.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 4c | 612.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…745dbacked Yes | 7c | 606$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6997…da91backed Yes | 7c | 578$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…cb17backed Yes | 3c | 573.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a1…364bbacked Yes | 7c | 563$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x601b…2eaabacked Yes | 8c | 537.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…42d3backed Yes | 7c | 522$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1926…f0d3backed Yes | 8c | 508$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 504.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…bb8cbacked Yes | 7c | 482$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…5c39backed Yes | 8c | 425$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…3481backed Yes | 7c | 407$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe17…27b7backed Yes | 7c | 406$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2d…7e4fbacked Yes | 7c | 399$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…1834backed Yes | 8c | 316$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…c0d7backed Yes | 8c | 304$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d23…7e12backed Yes | 4c | 249.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 7c | 245.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?this page
- Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?Yes won
- Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
- Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.