TailMyPicks
Market

AI · resolved market

Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$322,734
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$268,719

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $322,734 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c26,676$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.526291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c15,133$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.22920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7af1…5a2dbacked Yes1c5,931$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4670%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a47…4c93backed Yes3c4,207$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c3,652$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.732560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes1c3,649$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20277.4%2 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-86.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3520…4a5fbacked Yes3c3,275$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb09…069ebacked Yes3c3,250$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dcb…f3f1backed Yes3c3,241$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e4…a846backed Yes3c3,214$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76da…85dabacked Yes3c2,994$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2831…bf88backed Yes3c2,928$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8782…24d8backed Yes3c2,871$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d070backed Yes3c2,478$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827c…1618backed Yes3c2,228$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d5…6f93backed Yes1c2,174$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.756016.7%10 W · 50 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-67%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5aaa…e10fbacked Yes2c2,135$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa719…0f74backed Yes1c2,002$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebbe…3ef2backed Yes3c1,981$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa148…279ebacked Yes3c1,816$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5fc…120dbacked Yes2c1,813$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x630d…9c3dbacked Yes3c1,788$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf933…b0bfbacked Yes3c1,782$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5294…d176backed Yes1c1,772$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf331…5017backed Yes3c1,725$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e7…d713backed Yes3c1,688$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2db1…f11bbacked Yes3c1,683$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a6…cb34backed Yes3c1,679$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbab…2234backed Yes4c1,614$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4af8…0a0cbacked Yes3c1,579$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8291…fb45backed Yes3c1,537$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x098b…69adbacked Yes2c1,523$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5b9…441ebacked Yes3c1,504$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bbd…e3b2backed Yes3c1,473$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904a…b711backed Yes3c1,453$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7695…b1cdbacked Yes4c1,403$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9749…a63abacked Yes3c1,389$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45f3…d05dbacked Yes2c1,327$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes2c1,249$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.125324.5%13 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ce7…cefbbacked Yes3c1,239$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e61…a3ebbacked Yes3c1,236$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c11…69f0backed Yes3c1,122$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0102…a4bebacked Yes3c1,107$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1990…a1ccbacked Yes3c1,106$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f1d…4964backed Yes2c1,071$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8f8…e41abacked Yes3c1,054$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40af…d8a4backed Yes2c1,024$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe07a…41c1backed Yes3c1,012$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x818a…7220backed Yes3c1,008$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x946a…2e54backed Yes2c998$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8731…1b84backed Yes3c987$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd15b…1dbcbacked Yes3c966$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb477…a2fbbacked Yes3c960$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac65…4ebfbacked Yes3c949$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b93…8785backed Yes3c922$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea85…75bcbacked Yes3c829$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c21…2365backed Yes3c825$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52e…0260backed Yes3c822$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76f7…6062backed Yes3c805$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeae1…4438backed Yes3c795$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56aa…b9c9backed Yes3c772$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9c0…7060backed Yes3c771$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2444…39cdbacked Yes3c737$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd57a…9c38backed Yes2c711$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8751…949ebacked Yes3c674$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb444…ba4dbacked Yes3c641$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa20…8662backed Yes3c632$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc191…b3e6backed Yes3c613$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd3…f3bfbacked Yes2c606$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34b5…b334backed Yes3c600$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes2c599.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.16836%5 W · 78 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2a7…db79backed Yes3c582$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42e7…de0abacked Yes3c569$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e1…dbf9backed Yes3c544$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb264…cf1abacked Yes3c543$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0202…58bebacked Yes2c520$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x738e…7697backed Yes3c500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa654…4431backed Yes3c496$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1810…ebaabacked Yes3c484$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefef…3702backed Yes3c482$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a4…f1b2backed Yes3c420$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.