TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$235,032
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$193,876

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,032 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c20,027$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.26291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes7c9,476$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.5414339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes5c6,655$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.5325837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes10c5,570$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.521035.7%75 W · 135 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes6c5,565$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.3911723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes5c5,208$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.059940.4%40 W · 59 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c4,278$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.622674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed Yes10c4,066$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42414337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa14d…00ebbacked Yes10c3,575$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c3,521$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.591,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes6c3,272$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.176216.1%10 W · 52 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes18c3,175$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.243231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb114…cf79backed Yes6c2,815$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3687…fce2backed Yes4c2,488$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…9bedbacked Yes4c2,143$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa255…246cbacked Yes2c1,965$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2878…6f5dbacked Yes2c1,926$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c1,824$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.032560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes20c1,816$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.844835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f8…914bbacked Yes4c1,739$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb94…773fbacked Yes3c1,646$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc735…64b4backed Yes3c1,557$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c1,538$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.232792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes4c1,526$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6610933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8017…d6d2backed Yes4c1,508$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeeb2…7aa7backed Yes2c1,498$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes3c1,407$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.17531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-52.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa684…016bbacked Yes2c1,360$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85bb…23e4backed Yes4c1,356$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51c8…11c3backed Yes3c1,332$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11f8…38d5backed Yes4c1,301$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes3c1,300$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.48933.7%30 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8436…3c70backed Yes4c1,220$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb17…350dbacked Yes2c1,194$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c3e…c8dbbacked Yes3c1,160$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee0a…0f11backed Yes4c1,157$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes9c1,152$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10636945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4f8…2869backed Yes10c1,144$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef8b…afc2backed Yes4c1,130$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2017…968cbacked Yes2c1,112$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd79…cb17backed Yes4c1,081$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4470%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedca…a9a5backed Yes2c1,079$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d2…f954backed Yes8c1,030$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.868853.4%47 W · 41 L+13.9wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+27.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes14c1,026$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5112839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa794…42adbacked Yes11c1,008$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.542133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes12c1,008$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.612110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe01b…ba2abacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7101…884bbacked Yes8c991.52$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9b…e418backed Yes2c982$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1098…352abacked Yes4c980$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1004…3c15backed Yes2c955$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33a…9a87backed Yes4c940$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d48…6c69backed Yes4c933$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6435…cbc8backed Yes14c927.13$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1271741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3d…c37ebacked Yes9c907.6$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.53616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes5c905.12$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.35324.5%13 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e67…f256backed Yes2c885$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes5c862.61$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.357238.9%28 W · 44 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd2…6ba2backed Yes6c857.67$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61e2…ecc3backed Yes2c844$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c828.19$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.242522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb893…cc8bbacked Yes4c798$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe31b…5f28backed Yes13c762.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-63.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedaf…ff3cbacked Yes7c702.13$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b1…2351backed Yes2c702.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-19%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3b0e…6348backed Yes2c699.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.750%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x829d…dffdbacked Yes33c613.67$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-77.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bcb…8bc8backed Yes4c613$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes4c610.35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.08796.3%5 W · 74 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-74.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c63…ef0dbacked Yes4c607$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x155e…056cbacked Yes10c597.06$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeca…79e7backed Yes5c575.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa031…a701backed Yes9c573.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes6c500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.119040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d19…5dc0backed Yes4c464.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.16450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+409.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50b9…4467backed Yes11c450$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.33520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes5c442.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.864221.4%9 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-54.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes6c433.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.76923.2%16 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa594…04a8backed Yes4c429$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…a07fbacked Yes4c416$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes4c413$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.95790%0 W · 79 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes10c357.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.991533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1976…9be8backed Yes4c354$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes6c315.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64590%0 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes5c315.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.755813.8%8 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dba…d397backed Yes22c292$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1270%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8b99backed Yes4c277.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No75c265.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.253557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes7c230.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0119120.9%40 W · 151 L-20.8wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-57.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes27c228$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.652733.3%9 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes8c208.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1319337.3%72 W · 121 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c199.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.957426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d25…eafebacked Yes9c181.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ca…24dcbacked Yes11c174.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb315…92e1backed Yes9c138.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131540%6 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+605.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa0d6…f13dbacked Yes13c123.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes14c120.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3511346%52 W · 61 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes15c106.24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.821861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bc…8c38backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.