Middle East · resolved market
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x138ca462eebcfa83191c3fc478c97c1164064e88bf70f7e62f12c8751631c970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3096…58a3backed No | 17c | 8,540$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.82 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked No | 1c | 4,118$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 2,549$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 56c | 2,000$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.15 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 4c | 1,959$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 95 | 24.2%23 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 1,575$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 2c | 1,469$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 1,428$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.57 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 10c | 1,054$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 1,039$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.38 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 48c | 927.69$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.66 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 766.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 2c | 734.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cf…3517backed No | 2c | 729.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…7736backed No | 1c | 714.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…8b40backed Yes | 43c | 709.24$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.69 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e189backed No | 65c | 687.5$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.73 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 41c | 679$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked Yes | 41c | 656$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x636c…ea28backed No | 59c | 644$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 59c | 631$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.29 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 74c | 627.86$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.85 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 60c | 600$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 7c | 599.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…0a87backed No | 11c | 550.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…7bfbbacked Yes | 48c | 548.45$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.44 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 2c | 517.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…4146backed Yes | 41c | 503$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 59c | 499.99$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.99 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +114.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 486.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked No | 59c | 463$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.17 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…b608backed Yes | 44c | 454.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 34c | 451.09$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.97 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed Yes | 78c | 428.49$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.49 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 27c | 410.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 28c | 367$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.59 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…9b82backed Yes | 31c | 327.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -12.7wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x73b1…4a78backed Yes | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed No | 73c | 299.98$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9a…ea86backed Yes | 69c | 290.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.11 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked No | 55c | 276.58$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.59 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 62c | 275.7$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.48 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…71e7backed Yes | 65c | 265.03$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.57 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4618…7173backed Yes | 38c | 261$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 51c | 252.69$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.69 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 29c | 250$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.6 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…9e00backed No | 20c | 249.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…90e2backed Yes | 42c | 238.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.22 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 23cpaid | +215.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a42dbacked Yes | 46c | 216.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.93 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a4…d455backed No | 20c | 212.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…dd55backed Yes | 48c | 208.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc2…7d66backed Yes | 29c | 207.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.39 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed No | 16c | 201.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 190.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.32 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 13c | 182.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…6e5ebacked Yes | 45c | 178.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed No | 77c | 176.66$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.03 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 24c | 174.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.36 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 168$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.23 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcc…00c9backed Yes | 49c | 164.88$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed73…4465backed Yes | 51c | 149.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked No | 49c | 145.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 44c | 144.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…55b2backed No | 21c | 142.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 8c | 140.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 79c | 139.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfb…25edbacked No | 10c | 139.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 71c | 135.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 131.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 9c | 127.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed Yes | 26c | 127.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed No | 14c | 127.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 65c | 112.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63b3…ff39backed No | 19c | 110.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf886…34bcbacked Yes | 49c | 106$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked No | 15c | 105.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 37c | 105.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +16.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked Yes | 50c | 104.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 34c | 100.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…cf1dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 17.5%14 W · 66 L | -9.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f6…dd1fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 91.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…7a70backed Yes | 19c | 89.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked No | 45c | 86.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…9062backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84f5…db45backed Yes | 78c | 83.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 83.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?this page
- Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.