Middle East · resolved market
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x209bf66bbb9b45c3882d51231de025ac9fb4ad4c9d22095ec5825e898afdef5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29a6…7159backed Yes | 2c | 1,953$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb8…b936backed Yes | 2c | 1,632$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58fd…1aa5backed Yes | 1c | 1,531$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 17c | 1,113$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…1be2backed Yes | 14c | 981.7$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.16 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 15c | 677$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.84 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 19c | 509.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…14ecbacked Yes | 21c | 471.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 452.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…3f0cbacked Yes | 20c | 312.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…f2d9backed Yes | 16c | 304.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 298.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 12c | 280$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…8902backed Yes | 18c | 273.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…862ebacked Yes | 19c | 261.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed Yes | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 15c | 220$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 216.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d62…27e0backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…c903backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…a98abacked Yes | 27c | 183.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9a…a2afbacked Yes | 24c | 168.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed Yes | 14c | 165.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf59…9f6ebacked No | 75c | 159.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 74c | 137.91$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 22c | 134.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…ec34backed Yes | 18c | 133.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…22d1backed No | 80c | 125.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 120.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4e…4b04backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed Yes | 15c | 109.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 11c | 107.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…1078backed Yes | 17c | 89.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 19c | 87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…e241backed Yes | 20c | 78.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 18c | 65.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe936…2c27backed No | 77c | 65.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c6…61fbbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb16…9746backed Yes | 19c | 55.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Yes | 19c | 54.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…23a8backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3b…6b17backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…d87ebacked No | 80c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…4088backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?this page
- Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.