TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$190,373
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,184

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,373 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 246 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1214…ebecbacked Yes12c7,865$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$915.364918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-41.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes17c7,420$1,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28147328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes22c5,883$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,301.917751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No72c5,843$4,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,646.5229642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes25c5,802$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.8123639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed Yes4c5,771$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.113116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes2c5,330$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.4932814.9%49 W · 279 L+14.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-59.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes17c5,176$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868283.6%1 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes21c4,596$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.818746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked No74c4,154$3,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.5532739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfed7…9b10backed Yes18c4,143$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.633330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3248…c356backed Yes12c3,656$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-66%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes27c3,521$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.887538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3001…d5c3backed Yes11c3,352$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.64812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ee3…c539backed Yes10c3,029$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.55955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick28cpaid+113.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes24c3,011$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.2813635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes27c2,933$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.514746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes14c2,796$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.8715149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes27c2,499$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.671926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Yes10c2,498$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-74.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed Yes18c2,160$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.474211.9%5 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6408…d5c6backed Yes1c2,158$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5313.2%1 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-83.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked Yes24c2,096$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500758%6 W · 69 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-86.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.9816237.7%61 W · 101 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No79c1,922$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.6716737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9906…c0aebacked Yes9c1,805$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.871421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd7…45aabacked Yes10c1,782$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2301…7fa8backed Yes13c1,736$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.773540%14 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked No72c1,633$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.24580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed No77c1,539$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.418247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb75…446dbacked Yes3c1,537$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa461…878abacked Yes12c1,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2cf…4c49backed Yes9c1,303$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes24c1,271$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.7726431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fa…abcfbacked No79c1,261$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.38650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eac…fe52backed Yes25c1,250$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.311233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No80c1,227$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.5312442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c1,129$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.3810645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0b0…9a0abacked Yes10c1,116$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.55616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes22c1,097$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.4811825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04eb…f50dbacked Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-62.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9214…a803backed Yes15c999.99$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.53243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes19c909.47$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8512936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe664…bfb3backed Yes31c877.97$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.862846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes14c817.06$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.232352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes26c810$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.63040%12 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No80c800$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1606855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No68c757.15$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.852142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes22c728.08$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.212240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes23c720.08$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.911421.9%25 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes26c697.11$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.9729423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a43…178bbacked Yes29c604.99$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.75925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes21c600$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1263423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes17c569.58$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9613820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked No71c563.01$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85dc…7ebfbacked Yes21c560$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.293119.4%6 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes31c550$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7919031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes19c549.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.949034.4%31 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes30c544.33$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.485129.4%15 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No72c527.07$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.658653.5%46 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No68c500$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1605362.3%33 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x021e…1e56backed Yes7c484.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No80c478$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.63959%23 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes6c465.94$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.43116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No80c463$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.64252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No79c439.18$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.968351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb533…629fbacked Yes8c434.93$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.95728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeca…e32abacked Yes24c417.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc682…17bbbacked Yes16c412.09$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba89…0fefbacked Yes32c400$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes9c399.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34319.7%3 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-78.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes8c397$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes27c385.37$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.852123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0928…9d34backed Yes13c372.84$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes10c371.96$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.542536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8eb…8473backed Yes7c371.85$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.643010%3 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e76…7b84backed Yes25c355$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.381526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6680…c738backed Yes26c346$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.510544.8%47 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed No71c342.7$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.38875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5450…2a78backed Yes12c337.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-59.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No78c332.04$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.458638.4%33 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x128c…ad12backed Yes12c327.27$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.271637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19db…7636backed Yes14c314.11$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.235646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed No67c309.99$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+85.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5deb…ccddbacked No73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b9…0fbbbacked No76c300$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+50%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864f…3ae7backed Yes17c285.88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No71c283.88$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2436538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04f6…311abacked Yes19c282.62$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff95…557bbacked Yes10c277.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x498f…ec61backed Yes16c276.66$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.073033.3%10 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78bd…300dbacked Yes26c269.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes25c262.49$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9311633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes16c260.32$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8423321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeed4…92c6backed Yes12c258.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes30c257.15$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.666150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes25c250$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.52343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a08…cce8backed Yes10c249.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1047…763abacked Yes29c249.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.