TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$151,673
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$157,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,673 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd49b…bdf9backed No22c17,159$3,827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,826.551822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-65%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4da7…355ebacked Yes59c10,925$6,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,471.377538.7%29 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes71c7,444$5,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.9647328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked Yes66c5,575$3,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,868.2129642.6%126 W · 170 L+22.9wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No21c4,581$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.462142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes77c4,434$3,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.5613635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes38c4,245$1,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,622.364746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x955c…990fbacked Yes78c3,858$3,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.747157.7%41 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes68c3,646$2,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.518746%86 W · 101 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…9b10backed No45c3,401$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,527.093330.3%10 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No18c2,711$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.627537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes76c2,648$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.954114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-60.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes61c2,006$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.858247.6%39 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No45c1,683$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.6913034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No19c1,665$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.24955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No27c1,541$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.4516737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa461…878abacked No12c1,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No28c1,488$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.0110645.3%48 W · 58 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No39c1,448$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.842142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes78c1,277$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.6610042%42 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fa…abcfbacked No26c1,261$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.76650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eac…fe52backed Yes63c1,250$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.891233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No25c1,236$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.879951.5%51 W · 48 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes73c1,231$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.7117751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No26c1,152$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.7712442.7%53 W · 71 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No10c1,103$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.532686.3%17 W · 251 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes59c1,097$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.0411825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No72c1,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72016237.7%61 W · 101 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes45c991.3$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.763040%12 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73aa…c3b4backed Yes52c850$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No20c800$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1606855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes68c755.94$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.042240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc682…17bbbacked Yes80c750$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.881136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No13c749.16$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.883748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc93e…7195backed No12c731.92$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901553.3%8 W · 7 L+4.2wins+0.28per pick25cpaid+126.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed No14c701.26$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.523116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb35…4af4backed Yes59c700$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8daf…ef60backed No36c700$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.3837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes48c695.03$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.37812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-74.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes67c673.99$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.115745.6%26 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+58.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed No33c667.16$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.7326431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed No54c660$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No24c633.84$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.594721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes50c614.18$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.0510549.5%52 W · 53 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85dc…7ebfbacked No19c606$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.83119.4%6 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No72c600$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4323336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-46.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked No36c600$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2185129.4%15 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf933…52fbbacked Yes46c550$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29812240.2%49 W · 73 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb533…629fbacked No11c531$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.25728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No59c518.81$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.2722030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5a08…cce8backed No13c509$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No10c507.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.36319.7%3 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-78.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked No52c500$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.7115149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2190…0b30backed No57c500$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf294…7967backed Yes56c480.79$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.81926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No23c478$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.943959%23 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No51c474.13$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.582751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked Yes65c470.52$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.114151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe664…bfb3backed Yes63c470$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.92846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a43…178bbacked Yes74c469.97$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.45925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No23c463$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.494252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No50c455$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.54829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked No27c423.47$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114283.6%1 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No41c395.41$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.978653.5%46 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf60a…ee1cbacked No56c390$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e76…7b84backed Yes60c385$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.331526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed No25c361.32$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53a0…92aebacked Yes69c352$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x319b…f04ebacked Yes76c325.04$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.871040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes75c324.66$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.776150.8%31 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes46c318.62$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.0212936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42e6…8e78backed Yes60c303.19$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.197860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes46c300$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16211633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No24c265.34$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.24626.1%12 W · 34 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes45c259.95$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.5719532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No12c252.21$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-45.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.059034.4%31 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No71c250$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.52343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes61c249.99$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.991181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+50%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes44c243.98$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.2687033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No9c240$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked Yes72c226.83$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.565042%21 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x128c…ad12backed No24c220.5$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.321637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes60c215.39$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.744139%16 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No26c212.79$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.435234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed No7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed No71c200$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5080…d89abacked Yes74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d6…40d0backed No33c199.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6470%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b16ebacked No71c198.67$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed3a…3047backed No30c195.68$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6260%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No29c191.73$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.052352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes31c180.26$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1254934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No31c171$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.181163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511e…cfadbacked No71c167.68$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No19c161.93$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.525251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a7…95ebbacked No50c160$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x681b…8a5abacked No40c159.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.993339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.