TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$130,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,799

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,749 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb94c…b5b5backed No70c15,515$10,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,616.324746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1679…7ae5backed Yes2c8,907$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes1c4,624$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5283.6%1 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3248…c356backed Yes2c4,487$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-66%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x864f…3ae7backed Yes1c2,961$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes0c2,845$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6929423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1216…490abacked Yes1c2,595$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes29c2,152$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.4522030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes2c2,070$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.051231.6%2 W · 121 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes28c1,916$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.2613034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb413…1cb7backed Yes8c1,875$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.74211.9%5 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-45.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7de…b802backed Yes23c1,835$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43111836.4%43 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b0…9a0abacked Yes2c1,733$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.42616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-64.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b76…9823backed Yes29c1,650$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed Yes2c1,337$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.013116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1214…ebecbacked Yes1c1,300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-41.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3eac…fe52backed Yes6c1,250$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.221233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c1,204$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.022013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes9c1,182$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10523639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes2c1,162$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9513820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes5c1,094$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7411825.4%30 W · 88 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked Yes11c1,027$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3758%6 W · 69 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-86.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes11c999.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes29c958$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.53040%12 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c870.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.992042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes4c786.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.832240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes15c711.93$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9447328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes2c666.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes3c599.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.533123.9%79 W · 252 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes7c576.21$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.579034.4%31 W · 59 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-12.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd819…3091backed Yes30c568.1$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a91…0776backed Yes30c527.38$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…f61ebacked Yes30c506.55$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd1…4244backed Yes29c487$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes6c472.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3817017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes9c420$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4644.7%3 W · 61 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-74.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes9c400$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5615149%74 W · 77 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes30c400$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12036538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e76…7b84backed Yes6c385$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.671526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a43…178bbacked Yes20c370$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.95925.4%15 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6018…170cbacked Yes24c350.4$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6913635.3%48 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes7c350$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5319.7%3 W · 28 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-78.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes14c349.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5026431.1%82 W · 182 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes30c337.5$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2523130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed Yes6c308.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5111633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked No68c292.01$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.365837.9%22 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c06…a2b8backed Yes10c289.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No69c273.01$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.633336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-46.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2877…2724backed Yes30c261.78$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes29c250$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.52343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c239.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.791,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes9c220$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.42722.2%6 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x511e…cfadbacked Yes30c207.39$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed Yes30c205$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bca…b60abacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411421.9%25 W · 89 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb48…17d7backed Yes11c190.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4750%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfce1…c9bfbacked Yes8c181.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15258%2 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes12c150$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1819031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf00…0c1abacked Yes30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451010%1 W · 9 L-3.8wins-0.38per pick48cpaid-72.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes13c148.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8110042%42 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed Yes14c147.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.54812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-70.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes30c145$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.54930.6%15 W · 34 L-8.1wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x559c…1eb6backed Yes36c140.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xedae…fb2bbacked Yes12c128.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No67c125.47$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4116237.7%61 W · 101 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c105$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.687033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaaaa…6783backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c2…d561backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc682…17bbbacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305129.4%15 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd44c…4193backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x939d…f0f0backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b7d…cb08backed Yes33c90.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes13c89.96$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5613534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb5…a3ffbacked Yes30c78.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdc…a595backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd068…bb14backed Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdcd…0fe6backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e3e…ea35backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1400…d220backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1762…c890backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.56036.7%22 W · 38 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9343…d15ebacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02c8…72d0backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dd…d1d5backed No69c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.