Movies · resolved market
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf6ac2dbf21002c24399452a36616e1175c7d9fa6c3374b5ffb4126e34ca68be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 4c | 5,648$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.58 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,488$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,831$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,418$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.07 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…9b10backed Yes | 10c | 2,348$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.79 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,020$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.68 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,934$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,850$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,721$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,590$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,557$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 1,422$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 7c | 1,097$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 2c | 1,038$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 4c | 734.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 5c | 710.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 9c | 701.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 658.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 6c | 599.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 2c | 568.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 388.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes | 4c | 367.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b6…90d3backed Yes | 5c | 358$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…7b84backed Yes | 5c | 355$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 4c | 309.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 7c | 294.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 12c | 280.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…b1b8backed Yes | 6c | 279.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 8c | 167$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 8c | 164.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a6…1b6cbacked Yes | 7c | 157.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 8c | 123.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m?this page
- Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?Yes won
- Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?No won
- Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?No won
- Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 50m?No won
- Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 30m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.