Tennis · resolved market
Quebec City: Francesco Maestrelli vs Alexei Popyrin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59529eb3c188a7b717522961cfaab2d3de32c68fdbdf3336cef45168c62b4ec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alexei Popyrinof Francesco Maestrelli, Alexei Popyrin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 17c | 1,567$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.95 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…2e36backed Francesco Maestrelli | 3c | 1,075$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f17…0724backed Alexei Popyrin | 77c | 554.46$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.51 | 702 | 54.4%382 W · 320 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8f…14d1backed Francesco Maestrelli | 24c | 534.46$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.27 | 249 | 36.5%91 W · 158 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Francesco Maestrelli | 28c | 525.31$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.09 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Francesco Maestrelli | 6c | 518.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Francesco Maestrelli | 9c | 461.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alexei Popyrin | 77c | 400$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.4 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Francesco Maestrelli | 24c | 368.95$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 1,435 | 24.3%348 W · 1,087 L | -36.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…01ccbacked Alexei Popyrin | 72c | 347.22$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 1,077 | 62.8%676 W · 401 L | -27.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc3…2c84backed Alexei Popyrin | 73c | 299.97$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Alexei Popyrin | 72c | 279.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.29 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…4b0dbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 21c | 233.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 17c | 214.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 447 | 29.3%131 W · 316 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed Alexei Popyrin | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 470 | 58.5%275 W · 195 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Francesco Maestrelli | 28c | 140.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…b795backed Francesco Maestrelli | 24c | 128$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 541 | 41.4%224 W · 317 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Francesco Maestrelli | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,955 | 48%939 W · 1,016 L | +16.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…28f7backed Francesco Maestrelli | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 939 | 45.5%427 W · 512 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a48…ba21backed Alexei Popyrin | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Alexei Popyrin | 70c | 74.37$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2516…51edbacked Alexei Popyrin | 71c | 68.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 153 | 74.5%114 W · 39 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Francesco Maestrelli | 30c | 63.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Francesco Maestrelli | 29c | 61.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 299 | 45.8%137 W · 162 L | +20.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Francesco Maestrelli | 31c | 61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 301 | 32.9%99 W · 202 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…e738backed Alexei Popyrin | 75c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Alexei Popyrin | 76c | 54.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…e84cbacked Alexei Popyrin | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 302 | 68.9%208 W · 94 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Francesco Maestrelli | 23c | 44.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 277 | 49.1%136 W · 141 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5deb…ccddbacked Alexei Popyrin | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 721 | 47.3%341 W · 380 L | -18.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Alexei Popyrin | 78c | 29.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 348 | 64.1%223 W · 125 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…667dbacked Alexei Popyrin | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 234 | 68.8%161 W · 73 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Alexei Popyrin | 72c | 24.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071f…92bdbacked Alexei Popyrin | 72c | 21.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 1,076 | 73.8%794 W · 282 L | +41.1wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeedc…d4c0backed Alexei Popyrin | 70c | 18.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 148 | 70.3%104 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Alexei Popyrin | 70c | 16.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 186 | 66.7%124 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…016abacked Alexei Popyrin | 69c | 14.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 370 | 58.4%216 W · 154 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.