TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa5aa…35b2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
25
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Stocks, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Stocks at 55 out of 100; worst Dota2 at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+24.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Stocks — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of March 9 above $155?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.19
Will Apple (AAPL) close at $255-$260 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.16
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 9 above $255?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+168%+$17.98
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of March 9 above $147?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.91
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $305 on March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$23.31
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $210 on March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$19.3
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 9 above $300?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.6
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 9 above $305?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+128.5%+$43.4
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gentzsch vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 23.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Gentzsch vs. Berrettini: Match O/U 22.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2backed FaZe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hoppers be the highest grossing movie this weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes: O/U 154.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.01
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.