Ukraine · resolved market
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x771de080638c0fd0deff3e2016dfb22f16c1f6edad690c75d1f4cb9b240add51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,989,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,989,678 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96f9…09c7backed No | 0c | 1,000,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked No | 0c | 966,287$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca7…ad36backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f9…8a8bbacked No | 0c | 67,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…9bdcbacked No | 0c | 36,615$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…15a6backed No | 0c | 35,140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…c561backed No | 0c | 33,100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff2…3560backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 1c | 25,701$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…4421backed No | 0c | 18,285$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bb…029ebacked No | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 0c | 15,550$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f02…f844backed No | 0c | 15,527$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…dda7backed No | 0c | 14,968$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a3…0821backed No | 0c | 11,670$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 19c | 10,516$2,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.91 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad0…1153backed No | 0c | 10,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…86b0backed No | 0c | 10,010$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac36…5a18backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…ec6dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x314c…69ddbacked Yes | 26c | 7,952$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,905.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 35c | 7,492$2,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,607.93 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 41c | 7,315$3,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,302.11 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…a688backed No | 0c | 7,147$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…9cd5backed No | 19c | 6,953$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.27 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 65c | 5,022$3,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755.62 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442b…5b31backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 36c | 4,324$1,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,100$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.69 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2428…1e86backed No | 66c | 3,000$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,973.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…9d5cbacked No | 1c | 2,899$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 56c | 2,547$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.17 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b5…80eebacked No | 60c | 2,294$1,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,366.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeedb…59e5backed No | 77c | 2,291$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,769.91 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed Yes | 36c | 2,090$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 47c | 2,036$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,077.56 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 51c | 1,945$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d87…4f67backed Yes | 47c | 1,810$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9676…4374backed No | 7c | 1,800$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,501$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.92 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed Yes | 3c | 1,479$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 2cpaid | +1,134.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…069fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,466$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Yes | 61c | 1,457$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 62c | 1,367$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.89 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 2c | 1,293$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 65c | 1,268$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 74c | 1,214$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.72 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 71c | 1,211$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0afa…eff3backed No | 58c | 1,133$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed Yes | 43c | 1,100$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.1 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 53c | 1,077$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…4db4backed Yes | 3c | 1,073$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,478.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…4f1bbacked Yes | 59c | 1,018$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x991b…f19abacked Yes | 59c | 1,014$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…293ebacked No | 75c | 1,000$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 920$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.88 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 16c | 909.17$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.85 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8964…0becbacked Yes | 75c | 901.73$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked No | 45c | 890.28$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 3c | 878.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +463.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e8…a409backed Yes | 8c | 846.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +139.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 829.81$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.08 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 43c | 799.99$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Yes | 15c | 798.54$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…437cbacked Yes | 48c | 786.45$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd5…a776backed No | 52c | 786.45$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 62c | 765.72$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.29 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 760.37$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.71 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked Yes | 77c | 758.37$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +110.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 34c | 738.61$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa070…cd87backed Yes | 16c | 697.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +509.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 12c | 692.58$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.03 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf633…c684backed No | 57c | 691.51$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.93 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd845…8181backed Yes | 39c | 679.62$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed No | 51c | 672.81$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…2e36backed Yes | 59c | 654.15$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 37c | 560.26$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe557…a3f1backed Yes | 50c | 556.75$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 33c | 548.42$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.6 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…c42fbacked No | 57c | 533.23$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37fc…2138backed Yes | 43c | 533.23$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 44c | 512.79$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.58 | 129 | 27.9%36 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 31c | 511.59$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.7 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 79c | 491.49$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 32c | 486.22$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.36 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda32…04a1backed No | 38c | 475$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed No | 75c | 461.34$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x713c…41bbbacked No | 68c | 447.26$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a39…3859backed Yes | 45c | 446.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 53c | 410.53$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.84 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 40c | 406.69$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.96 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 70c | 401.61$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 18c | 396.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +89.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…65fabacked Yes | 54c | 391.93$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62de…e70bbacked No | 26c | 385.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 72c | 374.86$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.76 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 13c | 371.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 27c | 366.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?this page
- Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.