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Ukraine · resolved market

Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,888

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,888 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x35bb…15a6backed Yes13c1,872$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x96f9…09c7backed Yes6c1,748$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c33…8ad6backed Yes25c1,490$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.741323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes6c1,461$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.87440%0 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No67c1,322$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.597843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b84…ccf2backed No79c1,183$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.06650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes50c1,178$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.966437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes17c905.79$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.192711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No71c750.15$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.493060%18 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes5c747$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.018510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe885…38efbacked Yes51c706.68$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfe2…8c49backed No74c678.73$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.731060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed No77c647.55$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.344942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed No52c646.11$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-35.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf9e1…e46fbacked No64c563.19$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.127462.2%46 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+69%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3ad0…1153backed Yes49c545.88$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No77c493.09$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.459475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x597d…b97dbacked Yes12c420$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes14c401.93$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.321315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x502d…9cd5backed No57c396.35$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.282343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…c633backed Yes18c381.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.411040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65b9…dc25backed Yes14c362.97$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91b2…4c8cbacked Yes7c360.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes20c350$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.51233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa935…d988backed Yes22c342.6$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f9…8a8bbacked Yes15c341.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05be…78d0backed Yes18c336.3$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593865.8%25 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked Yes63c319.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1267.7%2 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2867…84debacked Yes4c262.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4455…99f2backed Yes33c251.37$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.571428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa6…c615backed Yes62c242.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed Yes20c230$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.33721.6%8 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-62.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb630…f3e6backed Yes43c230$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb07…2e36backed Yes13c229.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed Yes35c216$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.791040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+113%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No74c205.8$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.956341.3%26 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a39…3859backed Yes49c203.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-44.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed No51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeedb…59e5backed No53c187.49$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.191540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45bd…d20abacked Yes5c187.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6332…b6f1backed Yes17c183.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+59.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x027c…6ecdbacked Yes56c177.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes8c177.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.956126.2%16 W · 45 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff40…1a00backed No68c176.55$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Yes57c174.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+89.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff0…f896backed Yes49c167.46$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+30.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x204f…6fcbbacked Yes64c162.5$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62a3…0821backed Yes56c153.85$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ff6…2c67backed Yes22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+390.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5cc…0540backed Yes32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Yes26c148.21$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.16633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+77.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0275…b936backed Yes12c144.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.95520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf633…c684backed No67c143.27$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.281181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b5f…ef57backed No48c125$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652382.6%19 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0fdd…0a35backed Yes30c118.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.23728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes32c104.56$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2926318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0b9…6048backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1614150.4%71 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2779…62dfbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes21c99.98$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed Yes29c93.5$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.756640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No56c92.26$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.41887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick59cpaid+61.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes45c87.51$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.263928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x344f…bd80backed Yes41c63.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.572429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d4…cf9fbacked Yes40c60.12$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.29250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+83.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Yes41c58.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.04147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-60.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b48…35d0backed No75c52.85$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.24065%26 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No80c50.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.097243.1%31 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc24f…adf8backed Yes55c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No68c47.64$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.3339429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No35c42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.32927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x413a…0008backed Yes28c41.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.33425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e88…8fb7backed Yes28c40.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.051315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-63.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1224…62fbbacked No77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Yes53c38.75$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.544825%12 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-51.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x606f…1083backed No48c35.92$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.51475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef7c…9637backed No61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-45.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x73aa…c3b4backed No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick70cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x83d0…e8c6backed Yes70c29.44$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.631080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+40.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef87…a71dbacked No54c28.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.221346.2%6 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick70cpaid-32.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa897…09fabacked Yes55c27.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x075b…bc04backed Yes43c25.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d4…00d4backed No67c22.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.472100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccdf…b8a7backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb64c…393dbacked No67c17.72$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c7…1d9bbacked No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No70c14.53$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.36654.5%36 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.