Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes: O/U 154.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7d6c4bf51ebbb575fc4955eed0ca43038bae41e4ea2ee4da20a3f6db5097a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,501 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 417 | 52.5%219 W · 198 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 50c | 7,930$3,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,965 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +34.7wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 2,959$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.3 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 644.11$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.57 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…d03abacked Under | 52c | 457.29$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 53c | 455.99$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.16 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Under | 55c | 351.47$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.16 | 248 | 47.6%118 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7d…d1c9backed Under | 54c | 220.27$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.31 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 50c | 140.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Under | 50c | 137.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +19.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 48c | 133.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 54c | 130$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 218 | 50.5%110 W · 108 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…d4c9backed Under | 51c | 127.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…9baebacked Under | 52c | 115.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 104 | 58.7%61 W · 43 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 44c | 113.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 46c | 103.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 214 | 55.6%119 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f1…b99dbacked Over | 50c | 96.85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 92.45$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 53c | 77.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Over | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6721…0a05backed Under | 51c | 55.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Under | 56c | 43.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 42.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…35b2backed Over | 50c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Under | 55c | 19.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…c49cbacked Under | 51c | 19.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 55c | 19.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes: O/U 154.5this page
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami HurricanesMiami Hurricanes won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes: O/U 151.5Under won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes: O/U 153.5Under won
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-1.5)Miami Hurricanes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.