Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc768255c24cfd6b6a80dc546318c3290786d32939e17eb67f0681a9548e7ff39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Hurricanesof Louisville Cardinals, Miami Hurricanes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,889 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ec1…057cbacked Miami Hurricanes | 52c | 9,531$4,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,575.06 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Louisville Cardinals | 48c | 9,407$4,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,515.39 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 3,021$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.82 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Miami Hurricanes | 51c | 3,012$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.93 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 1,463$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.78 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Louisville Cardinals | 50c | 991.25$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.63 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Miami Hurricanes | 51c | 976.4$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.73 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Hurricanes | 51c | 572.19$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.28 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Miami Hurricanes | 49c | 472.96$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.95 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Miami Hurricanes | 55c | 360.72$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.45 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Louisville Cardinals | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Miami Hurricanes | 51c | 196.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 142.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Miami Hurricanes | 52c | 124.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 326 | 52.8%172 W · 154 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…20c0backed Miami Hurricanes | 57c | 115.63$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Miami Hurricanes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda82…f9d5backed Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 96.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 57.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 45.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1121…6604backed Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 300 | 50.7%152 W · 148 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…44a2backed Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 40.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 40.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Miami Hurricanes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Louisville Cardinals | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Louisville Cardinals | 50c | 31.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Hurricanes | 52c | 31.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Louisville Cardinals | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Louisville Cardinals | 50c | 24.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 293 | 37.2%109 W · 184 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Miami Hurricanes | 51c | 22.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Miami Hurricanes | 55c | 19.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami HurricanesMiami Hurricanes won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes: O/U 151.5Under won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes: O/U 153.5Under won
- Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes: O/U 154.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.