Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xece86e9983356b1a1d506e7aa07b23e7a26523bb86d6afda765778f7409316fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e75…4e58backed Yes | 8c | 16,400$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…35b2backed Yes | 0c | 14,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9d…e603backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 4,922$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…c7adbacked Yes | 12c | 4,507$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…226abacked Yes | 5c | 2,618$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.24 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,115$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 3c | 965.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 924.36$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 18c | 789.17$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.52 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 6c | 758.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 600.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 578.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…e1cdbacked Yes | 3c | 545.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…5df4backed Yes | 2c | 487.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 14c | 368.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed Yes | 6c | 328.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…d691backed Yes | 17c | 234.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 232.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 5c | 231.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 222.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 20c | 212.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 17c | 196.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 10c | 185.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 7c | 181.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 13c | 153$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 129.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 97.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 17c | 79.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…7104backed Yes | 15c | 79.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 75c | 44.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.