Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15d484652ea98d177fb4c5eff26d6f978665bc5fd8efbe7845725a9e2992ea1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,512 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 6,892$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.51 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf05…eb08backed Yes | 35c | 2,807$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…8464backed Yes | 35c | 2,785$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…f46cbacked Yes | 42c | 2,300$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…0dc8backed No | 58c | 2,300$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…226abacked Yes | 5c | 2,210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec7…45bdbacked No | 65c | 1,428$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…9392backed No | 65c | 1,413$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf700…034cbacked No | 65c | 1,394$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c1…6d04backed No | 65c | 1,357$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 1,111$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…baafbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 44c | 959.08$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.88 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 3c | 680.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 67c | 642.34$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.95 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 58c | 638.41$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.06 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 62c | 622.07$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.24 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 51c | 520.98$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.65 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 475.04$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes | 7c | 463.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…775dbacked Yes | 42c | 408.17$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 406.46$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 42c | 401.26$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.83 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 8c | 400.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 400.28$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed Yes | 18c | 366.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 15c | 353.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…7477backed Yes | 24c | 352.26$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 46c | 322.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.94 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 5c | 294.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 38c | 288.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 282.63$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 268.27$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 40c | 241.27$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.76 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 232.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e1…a2bfbacked Yes | 45c | 220.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 19c | 220.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 34c | 214.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 204.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 64c | 199.98$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Yes | 48c | 199.24$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.52 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 68c | 197.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 8c | 193.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 36c | 182.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 176.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 57c | 173.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…ecc1backed Yes | 44c | 169$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7278…737dbacked Yes | 47c | 166$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 160.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 23c | 159.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 39c | 154.74$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 64c | 153$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 150.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…bebabacked Yes | 44c | 146.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 38c | 139.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c9…7210backed Yes | 47c | 139$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 65c | 135.36$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…dd88backed Yes | 47c | 125.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 55c | 122.33$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Yes | 49c | 118.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 117.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 65c | 116.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 13c | 109.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked No | 62c | 106.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 102.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 56c | 94.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 57c | 93.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 37c | 90.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 44c | 90.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 82.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc08e…9594backed Yes | 31c | 78.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 38c | 76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d87…9fc1backed No | 56c | 74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 66c | 70.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 69c | 68.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 69c | 66.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 26c | 63.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 48c | 63.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…dbe8backed Yes | 40c | 62.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 33c | 62.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d1…ccb2backed No | 52c | 58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4d…2714backed Yes | 41c | 57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e3…5062backed No | 62c | 56.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 72c | 56.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9b…fd86backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…7d39backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…f64ebacked Yes | 44c | 53.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…9e72backed Yes | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked Yes | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 46c | 48.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.