Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ad6847eb246872b45c0be40650dc86f1febf441f127256feba1e329a8e400b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,693 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98b8…b240backed No | 2c | 22,518$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f3…94cbbacked Yes | 45c | 6,250$2,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,437.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…bc56backed No | 55c | 6,250$3,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,437.5 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…3631backed Yes | 36c | 5,600$2,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,570.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…b09bbacked No | 64c | 5,600$3,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,576.1 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 3,904$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,194.15 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0216…d434backed No | 63c | 3,850$2,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,425.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…3e02backed Yes | 37c | 3,850$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,425.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 70c | 3,286$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.46 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…8605backed No | 0c | 2,488$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 19c | 1,574$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 36c | 1,414$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.28 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 33c | 1,341$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.16 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 1,108$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 12c | 824.64$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 32c | 751.32$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 731.2$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.39 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 53c | 659.93$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.13 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…775dbacked Yes | 47c | 655.28$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 38c | 614.76$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.81 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 45c | 612.93$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.95 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 593.26$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.77 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 577.55$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.03 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 73c | 552.95$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.19 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 523.34$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.79 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 23c | 519.89$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.93 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…640abacked Yes | 10c | 510.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +141.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed No | 12c | 488.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 437.55$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 54c | 366.8$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 365.73$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 52c | 360.45$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.02 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 354.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 324.75$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.86 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 17c | 302.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.81 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 13c | 293.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 23c | 290.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.64 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 12c | 288.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.07 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 26c | 286.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 52c | 285.45$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.44 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes | 18c | 284.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.27 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e1…a2bfbacked Yes | 40c | 281.98$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.46 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 47c | 269.64$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.68 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e07…31dcbacked Yes | 38c | 259.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 29c | 258.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.45 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 43c | 232.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.24 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 63c | 216.43$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.3 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 22c | 213.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.34 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 211.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…1a08backed No | 77c | 210.24$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 13c | 204.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 203.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 40c | 203.42$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…baafbacked Yes | 50c | 200.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 62c | 199.97$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.98 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc4…d1c8backed Yes | 51c | 194.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…7477backed Yes | 19c | 194.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…9813backed Yes | 53c | 186.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 45c | 184$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 60c | 182$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 35c | 174.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 18c | 161.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.72 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 64c | 157.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 65c | 151$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 143.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 143.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc3…e279backed Yes | 35c | 143$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +184.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…a287backed No | 69c | 140.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked No | 52c | 138.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 133.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.33 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 74c | 130.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 130.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 15c | 130$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.1 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 72c | 126.92$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 50c | 120.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 47c | 119.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 59c | 118.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 38c | 117.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.31 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 114.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.52 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 76c | 111.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…204dbacked No | 54c | 110.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 73c | 109.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 36c | 107.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 28c | 105$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 103.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 47c | 100.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 40c | 99.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 36c | 99.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 25c | 98.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 59c | 92.31$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 62c | 91.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 40c | 90.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 24c | 89.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9b…fd86backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.