TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,631
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,623

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,631 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfca3…93eabacked Yes14c13,000$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8201816.7%3 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-70%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No40c5,599$2,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,341.295848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes10c1,920$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1924,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf9…1deabacked Yes2c1,148$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes2c1,125$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.954346.5%20 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes24c1,108$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.56,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No78c1,108$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.741,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No49c1,106$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.4512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes11c1,098$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.084436.4%16 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes32c747.63$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.9433058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No33c663.94$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.7190040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes74c605.58$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.644136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed No69c580.32$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.2943525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes16c575.83$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5933620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7105…b731backed Yes8c502$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1660%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes5c499.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x580f…77eebacked Yes14c496.62$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5370%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed Yes27c474.86$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3866144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes9c466.04$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.743023.3%7 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+59.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No18c454.25$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.5834219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes47c428.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011233.9%38 W · 74 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x12ea…9813backed Yes23c402$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.31145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes76c400$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.9839541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No13c396.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.3359742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes13c375.37$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1871823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed No63c375$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.441,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe3eb…b6bebacked Yes17c372.92$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.76616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes71c331.28$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.1621641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e36…2881backed Yes45c320$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…87a9backed Yes4c314.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5446423.5%109 W · 355 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x13e6…c310backed Yes13c307.64$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9315911.3%18 W · 141 L-10.1wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes63c295.09$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18550648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes5c286.07$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2625549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8394…8d66backed No40c255$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.121050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No72c239.23$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8731170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xbd0b…6c40backed Yes10c214.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0401…69debacked Yes13c208.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.342334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c79…8e0abacked Yes9c205.6$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.511612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-78.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes27c203.78$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7511126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3735…5a5bbacked Yes40c186.97$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2415136.4%55 W · 96 L-11.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes9c175.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.981,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes14c170$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.81,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes79c167$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.581,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf845…7c31backed No42c165.03$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.418957.3%51 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes10c148.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.867714.3%11 W · 66 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-49.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes13c147.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.567,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5138…8776backed Yes9c144.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1370%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed Yes11c142.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1529056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes9c140$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1518740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfef4…d202backed Yes19c134.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes49c131.6$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1249547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e76…65bdbacked Yes17c126.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.63141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed No61c126.5$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.551,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes63c123.4$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1381234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes23c120.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.47,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes34c118.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9c2…d167backed Yes17c118.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205425.9%14 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes9c114.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea39…5b94backed No23c114$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.781172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+54.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes10c109.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0356721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb52e…6104backed Yes11c108.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122412.5%3 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-62.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes74c105.78$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.058640.7%35 W · 51 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes14c105.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.199046.7%42 W · 48 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2547…f3abbacked Yes40c104.39$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.841675%12 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+17.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e09…4fd4backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0494…631fbacked Yes11c99.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113060%18 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed No19c94.06$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.3227560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6478…c918backed Yes11c92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes18c86.34$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.981029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No63c79.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5759440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…f1b1backed No49c77.24$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3110051%51 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bbf…9047backed Yes15c77.13$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.67219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf77b…42e9backed No76c75.27$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.973076.7%23 W · 7 L+5.8wins+0.19per pick57cpaid+45.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6edd…6569backed Yes16c75.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.74100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes29c73.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3325725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd5…ccd2backed Yes17c70.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes44c70$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8119047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3ba…df9bbacked Yes51c64.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333528.6%10 W · 25 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-53.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1edf…6be6backed No79c63.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.431553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed No76c63.42$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2212744.9%57 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes19c62.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9719426.3%51 W · 143 L-0.9wins0.00per pick27cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed No77c62.84$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.454656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcfa…1542backed Yes37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.378239%32 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No43c56.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2632760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No51c56.56$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.611,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes59c54.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2810537.1%39 W · 66 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes57c53.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.341,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2917…e7acbacked Yes42c51.39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.831428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes41c50.71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6822454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes28c50.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.124,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes30c42.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0257232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c40.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No72c34.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.872466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc49b…204dbacked No76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.321952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe466…f8abbacked Yes43c25.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacda…bd31backed Yes42c24.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d1…011fbacked Yes67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.36366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.