Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8d8e16cd4d024dfc227a659916de3ce2fe33cf983f06b9f0aaed023d59c68ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfca3…93eabacked Yes | 14c | 13,000$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked No | 40c | 5,599$2,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,341.29 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,920$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf9…1deabacked Yes | 2c | 1,148$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 1,108$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.5 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 78c | 1,108$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.74 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 1,106$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,098$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.08 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 32c | 747.63$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.94 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 33c | 663.94$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.71 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa3…5a51backed Yes | 74c | 605.58$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.64 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 69c | 580.32$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.29 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 16c | 575.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…b731backed Yes | 8c | 502$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 5c | 499.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x580f…77eebacked Yes | 14c | 496.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 27c | 474.86$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.38 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes | 9c | 466.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 18c | 454.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.58 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…f71cbacked Yes | 47c | 428.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…9813backed Yes | 23c | 402$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 76c | 400$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.98 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 396.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.33 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 13c | 375.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 63c | 375$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.44 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…b6bebacked Yes | 17c | 372.92$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 71c | 331.28$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.16 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e36…2881backed Yes | 45c | 320$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 4c | 314.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 13c | 307.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 63c | 295.09$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 5c | 286.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8394…8d66backed No | 40c | 255$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 72c | 239.23$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0b…6c40backed Yes | 10c | 214.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 13c | 208.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c79…8e0abacked Yes | 9c | 205.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 27c | 203.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked Yes | 40c | 186.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 9c | 175.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 79c | 167$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.58 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 42c | 165.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 10c | 148.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 147.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…8776backed Yes | 9c | 144.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 11c | 142.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 9c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef4…d202backed Yes | 19c | 134.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 49c | 131.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…65bdbacked Yes | 17c | 126.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 61c | 126.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 63c | 123.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 120.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 34c | 118.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 17c | 118.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 114.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…5b94backed No | 23c | 114$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 10c | 109.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed Yes | 11c | 108.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 74c | 105.78$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 14c | 105.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2547…f3abbacked Yes | 40c | 104.39$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e09…4fd4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 19c | 94.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…c918backed Yes | 11c | 92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 18c | 86.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 63c | 79.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed No | 49c | 77.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbf…9047backed Yes | 15c | 77.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed No | 76c | 75.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6edd…6569backed Yes | 16c | 75.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 29c | 73.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd5…ccd2backed Yes | 17c | 70.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked Yes | 51c | 64.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…6be6backed No | 79c | 63.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 76c | 63.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 19c | 62.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 77c | 62.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 43c | 56.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 51c | 56.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 59c | 54.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 57c | 53.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…e7acbacked Yes | 42c | 51.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 41c | 50.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 50.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 30c | 42.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 40.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 72c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…204dbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…f8abbacked Yes | 43c | 25.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacda…bd31backed Yes | 42c | 24.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…011fbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.