Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,860 on the final trading day of February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a5713cab2c61818fc5f8877f65a5d5ee9bd1ec9545fc7a3202b0f163c124ca5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdefe…17f4backed Yes | 55c | 6,160$3,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,743.68 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 42c | 5,372$2,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,270.28 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 56c | 2,930$1,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 32c | 2,923$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.93 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5a…bf0abacked Yes | 62c | 900$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 47c | 672.52$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.12 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 22c | 604.29$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.63 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 65c | 600$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 45c | 478.4$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.08 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 447.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked No | 46c | 436.42$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.75 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 374.1$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.44 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…fca5backed No | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 49c | 278.32$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 42c | 247.4$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…f272backed No | 38c | 245.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…23d4backed Yes | 58c | 227.8$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 202.33$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.28 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…f0a5backed No | 62c | 198.23$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 52c | 176.19$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed No | 46c | 153.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 27c | 150.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 43c | 145.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60a…5a90backed No | 34c | 144.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed No | 52c | 138.64$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 57c | 134.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…aad3backed No | 59c | 128.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed No | 47c | 123.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 53c | 120$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 57c | 119.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.53 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…622cbacked No | 50c | 118$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…57afbacked Yes | 44c | 114.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 20c | 111.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…5825backed No | 37c | 103$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…bd2dbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…b9d1backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 17c | 96.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed No | 54c | 93.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.33per pick | 60cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 50c | 81.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 80.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193e…76ebbacked No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 52c | 55.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 43c | 51.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 36c | 50.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe28f…9b30backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc9…7e10backed No | 53c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958c…864abacked Yes | 56c | 38.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 54c | 37.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed No | 42c | 34.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf992…ebb5backed Yes | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 48c | 33.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6470…aac7backed No | 64c | 31.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 34c | 30.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +9.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…c380backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…7db3backed No | 57c | 27.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…c3c8backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307c…aca6backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd194…24b8backed Yes | 58c | 24.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 65c | 22.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 20.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39c…1315backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…d411backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,860 on the final trading day of February 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,700 on the final trading day of February 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,940 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,000 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,060 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,140 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.