Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,000 on the final trading day of February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4fa4633611c284dcbb8aeea5450a99ccae49e53438582f9fa987d1bc22ebf7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,597$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…17f4backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 78c | 1,719$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.18 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 13c | 533.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes | 12c | 420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 26c | 390$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed Yes | 43c | 330.17$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 57c | 250$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…754ebacked Yes | 46c | 205$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…6771backed No | 53c | 183.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +78%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 70c | 169.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c48…da98backed Yes | 40c | 162$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15fa…1bbcbacked Yes | 40c | 159$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f3…bdc9backed Yes | 40c | 153$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd246…3a10backed Yes | 40c | 152$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8070…8c6dbacked Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb72…7902backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45af…5849backed Yes | 40c | 148$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…362bbacked Yes | 40c | 144$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc06…fcffbacked Yes | 40c | 140$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…b0c1backed No | 72c | 132$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 116$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2562…72a9backed No | 75c | 89.48$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195e…5b57backed No | 60c | 74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…ee33backed No | 60c | 74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbadc…90adbacked No | 60c | 74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d11…df3ebacked No | 60c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37e…194cbacked No | 60c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f01…3fc8backed No | 60c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…5cf4backed No | 60c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…f471backed No | 60c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…a4dabacked No | 60c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x244a…cd84backed No | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623b…6260backed No | 60c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb695…6a27backed No | 60c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb164…560dbacked No | 60c | 61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…74b3backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701a…f7fdbacked No | 60c | 59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a1…39eebacked No | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 47c | 47.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x895b…eaf7backed Yes | 28c | 47.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…1e7ebacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…1684backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,000 on the final trading day of February 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,700 on the final trading day of February 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,860 on the final trading day of February 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,940 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,060 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,140 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.