Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,060 on the final trading day of February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10635a0fce83c5a1dbc0e6e1e4d89ef4aa87e1a43089885f21140858c3459480
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 6c | 25,237$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 6,374$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf965…0677backed Yes | 1c | 4,700$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,065$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dda…64c7backed Yes | 38c | 116$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…de5dbacked Yes | 38c | 114$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e6…5cf4backed Yes | 38c | 111$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…7a4bbacked Yes | 38c | 105$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f95…6281backed Yes | 38c | 103$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80e8…e977backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…afaebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…abdfbacked Yes | 38c | 96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6689…49a0backed Yes | 38c | 95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec4…12d0backed Yes | 38c | 92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f02…88c7backed No | 62c | 71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…859cbacked No | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55f1…2b5abacked No | 62c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65c…0dc9backed No | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ca…206bbacked No | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d7…492dbacked No | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…1c8dbacked No | 62c | 66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270d…3c29backed No | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…5132backed No | 62c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff44…b143backed No | 62c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…c94ebacked No | 62c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e6…965dbacked No | 62c | 63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8125…7749backed No | 62c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…0b3abacked No | 62c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2d…c204backed No | 62c | 58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd8…bc69backed No | 62c | 57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,060 on the final trading day of February 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,700 on the final trading day of February 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,860 on the final trading day of February 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,940 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,000 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,140 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.