Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,940 on the final trading day of February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef2a1f8c9cc6c3f18077b9c49ae83460db4b9ab2a704aac414d569049010e199
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 25c | 9,571$2,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,392.86 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 70c | 5,997$4,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.37 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…17f4backed Yes | 28c | 4,045$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 59c | 2,882$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.69 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…f272backed No | 56c | 1,249$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 65c | 900$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 26 | 88.5%23 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 53c | 805.84$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.24 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 41c | 800$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.92 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 68c | 638.33$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.73 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 65c | 571.49$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.21 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed Yes | 57c | 512.15$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.44 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5a…bf0abacked Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4f…6879backed Yes | 17c | 480$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 28c | 466.34$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 13c | 401.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…6be5backed Yes | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 61c | 400$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 70c | 381.09$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.33 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6040…4c57backed Yes | 64c | 364.42$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 27c | 326.74$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes | 33c | 325.42$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.39 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…0140backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…4c31backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…b6d4backed Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 281.53$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 33c | 214.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 36c | 193.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 171.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 10c | 153.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 118.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…5825backed No | 66c | 113$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 40c | 110.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…754ebacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ee…dc64backed No | 43c | 97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1151…29b0backed No | 43c | 96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed No | 68c | 95.86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 68c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…be2fbacked No | 43c | 95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc8…42adbacked No | 43c | 93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…02a9backed Yes | 55c | 92.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe490…6fbbbacked No | 43c | 89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf9…fa4ebacked No | 43c | 89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x366e…4ca0backed No | 43c | 88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffa…f137backed Yes | 36c | 87.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f09…3e98backed No | 43c | 86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 84.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…7459backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d33…0aa7backed No | 43c | 83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…747abacked No | 43c | 81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…2ca3backed No | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…1d2fbacked Yes | 57c | 79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…ce1abacked Yes | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…18fbbacked No | 43c | 74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8baf…9721backed Yes | 57c | 73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…781fbacked Yes | 57c | 73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…943ebacked Yes | 57c | 73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5a…320fbacked Yes | 57c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc49…89b1backed Yes | 57c | 71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x178d…69f2backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ed…65c7backed Yes | 57c | 68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…9b41backed Yes | 57c | 68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…373fbacked Yes | 57c | 68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…008abacked Yes | 57c | 68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…f6fcbacked Yes | 57c | 66$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…66afbacked Yes | 35c | 65.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1c…44fdbacked Yes | 57c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…4c08backed Yes | 57c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 43.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +8.7wins | +0.30per pick | 46cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…1e7ebacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 38c | 39.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 36.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d75…b263backed No | 59c | 33.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 37c | 31.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 27.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb297…d832backed Yes | 42c | 24.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…6cb7backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…fe4ebacked No | 60c | 17.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…99cfbacked No | 72c | 14.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,940 on the final trading day of February 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,700 on the final trading day of February 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,860 on the final trading day of February 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,000 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,060 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,140 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.