Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,700 on the final trading day of February 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x550ad7b4accc15e6aeca478e178203364161f76fc6a84e9840f8613d936d2661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 5,753$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed No | 15c | 2,635$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bd…8210backed No | 2c | 2,080$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…b090backed No | 8c | 1,698$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 19c | 1,357$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.2 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 77c | 597.17$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.7 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed Yes | 69c | 513.05$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.05 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd60a…5a90backed No | 35c | 199.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 19c | 195.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 9c | 175$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 40c | 170.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 9c | 117.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 76c | 91.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…99cfbacked No | 22c | 77.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 80c | 63.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed No | 17c | 60.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…d206backed No | 63c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 23c | 44.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4a…0c3ebacked No | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc9…7e10backed No | 30c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec4…30b5backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 78c | 13.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,700 on the final trading day of February 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,860 on the final trading day of February 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,940 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,000 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,060 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,140 on the final trading day of February 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.