Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x680784812145063cecedfa7f000654e89317e2aca612182884d7742ac6f801f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 63c | 4,018$2,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.65 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked Yes | 78c | 3,408$2,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,648.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 42c | 2,893$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,675.76 | 1,112 | 43.7%486 W · 626 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 29c | 2,783$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987.43 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 59c | 2,176$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.91 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,885$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.13 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 24c | 1,876$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.3 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 62c | 1,630$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.28 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 66c | 1,498$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.92 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 29c | 1,487$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.14 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 75c | 1,470$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.3 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 1,400$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…7734backed No | 29c | 1,348$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 27c | 1,160$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.81 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 75c | 821.07$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.59 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 73c | 808$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.17 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 5c | 800$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 74c | 683.06$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.62 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 35c | 681.8$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.79 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 12c | 576.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 539.87$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.56 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 73c | 504.38$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.32 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…5ba3backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +193.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 72c | 439$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.49 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdde0…cf10backed Yes | 76c | 422.55$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…18c7backed Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 13c | 364.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed Yes | 55c | 340$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked Yes | 65c | 310.93$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.99 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 67c | 295.54$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 75c | 250.09$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.07 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Yes | 79c | 249.62$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 55c | 248.32$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.25 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e95…b303backed Yes | 73c | 213$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…bd2dbacked Yes | 80c | 210.54$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 57c | 207.7$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.55 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39ee…b604backed No | 33c | 185.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 25c | 185$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.75 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 75c | 181.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.18 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 23c | 167.17$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.29 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 58c | 153.18$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 13c | 150.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.23 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 41c | 150$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 45c | 149$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 41c | 145.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed Yes | 62c | 145.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 21c | 140$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68dc…0b72backed Yes | 76c | 131.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked Yes | 65c | 128$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 61c | 126.12$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 41c | 123$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.57 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…8297backed No | 28c | 112$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…c686backed No | 26c | 110.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes | 68c | 107.76$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b0…9d67backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2a…7243backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 95.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e32…e723backed No | 31c | 89.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…f33fbacked Yes | 65c | 88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…b958backed No | 54c | 84.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8622…cdc9backed No | 32c | 77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 21c | 69.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked No | 36c | 68.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 17c | 64.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.19 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 62.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 73c | 59.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 55.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 36c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad76…116dbacked Yes | 79c | 50.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…24d2backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…b572backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 79c | 45.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 50c | 40.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 54c | 37.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…d535backed No | 54c | 35.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed Yes | 69c | 24.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…cd0fbacked Yes | 74c | 14.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…b4ebbacked Yes | 74c | 14.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c701backed Yes | 79c | 13.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of January?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $525 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $570 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.