Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a991a29bbb2bb8118237815223c4b906328b7e8a373aa97fdae409a025470dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,428$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 26c | 2,194$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.06 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 17c | 2,133$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.65 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,929$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.98 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,923$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.26 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 75c | 1,759$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.8 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 79c | 1,548$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.3 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 78c | 1,416$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.1 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1045…0056backed Yes | 14c | 950.08$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked Yes | 17c | 935.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.32 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 18c | 918.75$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.48 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25b3…2763backed Yes | 22c | 844.99$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.36 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 79c | 776.69$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.21 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 12c | 612.93$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 16c | 545.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 14c | 472.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c76…f436backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 308.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 307.95$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.62 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 291.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 7c | 265$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 24c | 265$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x194a…7005backed Yes | 29c | 254.61$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 205.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 23c | 187.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 13c | 155.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 9c | 143.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 13c | 143.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 24c | 137.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 14c | 135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 11c | 114.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa4…22babacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked Yes | 33c | 101.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Yes | 26c | 100.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…c84dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf68…ae5cbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 80.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…dedfbacked No | 78c | 78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked Yes | 19c | 73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb95…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 64.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 70c | 35.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 25.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21e6…1715backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of January?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $525 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $570 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.