Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $525 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41373abec915e2e3a8cef7cba7c0d1d9e6ec4a5e178a91b66f9f865d42e25f5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 4c | 2,524$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 4c | 1,249$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,130$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 968.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked Yes | 5c | 592.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 6c | 418.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 5c | 412.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes | 5c | 385$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Yes | 7c | 299$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc940…a508backed Yes | 6c | 268.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 8c | 251.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 8c | 245$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked Yes | 6c | 230$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked Yes | 9c | 145.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $525 end of January?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $570 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.