Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34c320af835b2d4b56224618b9930e3a6b26ed7f6854c4f8ce04b35f6d3ee801
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked Yes | 64c | 6,000$3,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,840 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 13c | 2,631$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,281.97 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 43c | 1,732$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.43 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1b…63fdbacked Yes | 6c | 944$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes | 66c | 434.18$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.57 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 14c | 407$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.02 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ceb…baefbacked Yes | 64c | 288.08$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 5c | 287$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.65 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…f4c6backed No | 9c | 250$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +461.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 25c | 249$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.22 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb723…7ae0backed No | 25c | 240.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe2…c78ebacked No | 5c | 210.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 9c | 203.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.27 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5193…2088backed No | 11c | 192.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…362dbacked No | 13c | 190.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5170…b032backed No | 11c | 180.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e7…3345backed No | 11c | 157.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +190.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 9c | 119.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.03 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…6669backed No | 10c | 118.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +285.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 33c | 105$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 28c | 102.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…c658backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b32…32c1backed Yes | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed No | 12c | 90$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 41c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…c5a2backed Yes | 79c | 64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…99e4backed No | 32c | 61.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 35c | 55.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fc…e300backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3f…a97dbacked Yes | 53c | 37.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 32c | 37.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d86…a717backed Yes | 45c | 26.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of January?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $525 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $570 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.