Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe220ab18b19107b4a06b18a0b5e2a9e9ab4cd7cb297c27cfa05a3369815a1579
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f5d…78fbbacked Yes | 40c | 5,118$2,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,046.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 18c | 2,028$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.02 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 73c | 1,292$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.12 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 32c | 1,123$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.96 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 73c | 928.88$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.15 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 68c | 659.47$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.87 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 68c | 650$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked No | 66c | 618$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.82 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 75c | 532.01$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.67 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 52c | 512.32$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.93 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 30c | 430$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 420.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 77c | 281.35$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 266.4$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 24c | 266$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 32c | 189.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.94 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 57c | 179.91$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…ca77backed Yes | 36c | 179$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed No | 69c | 159.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 73c | 148$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 48c | 138.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 60c | 138.28$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 26c | 126.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 122.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 51c | 119.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 75c | 111.18$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 51c | 105$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 102$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…b958backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed No | 78c | 98.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5181…97a0backed Yes | 32c | 98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11b1…6827backed Yes | 32c | 91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 78c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 31c | 83.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 68c | 77.61$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…5216backed Yes | 26c | 77.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…73e6backed No | 74c | 76.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 33c | 70.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 17c | 69.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b32…32c1backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…8c1abacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…fe94backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 64c | 42.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked No | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 78c | 32.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…f072backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…824cbacked Yes | 52c | 22.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of January?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $525 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $570 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.