Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e075035583f3bf066377b92593a81ee9b40c72886cd590571c953d957ec63fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8bd…463dbacked Yes | 57c | 3,241$1,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,834.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 54c | 2,334$1,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.69 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,916$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 58c | 1,595$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.26 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…eb64backed No | 44c | 1,400$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 32c | 1,399$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.75 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 46c | 1,252$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.65 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked Yes | 48c | 930$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.85 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…d4eebacked No | 74c | 834$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 58c | 817.15$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.43 | 1,112 | 43.7%486 W · 626 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…1eebbacked No | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4100…0070backed Yes | 74c | 773.2$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 49c | 746.11$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.77 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 60c | 676.01$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.42 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 48c | 645.17$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.88 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 39c | 640$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.69 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 57c | 614.48$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.35 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 521.14$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.3 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…50f9backed Yes | 50c | 492.72$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 52c | 462.53$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.23 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 49c | 441.48$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.02 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed No | 44c | 440.3$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.1 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 62c | 407.48$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.2 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 14c | 405$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 43c | 400$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f61…8e4fbacked Yes | 19c | 372.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 51c | 352$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.25 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 10c | 332.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…b09fbacked Yes | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…3f4fbacked No | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 32cpaid | +217.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 49c | 293.21$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.65 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…5216backed No | 35c | 276.3$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…7734backed No | 27c | 275$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.22 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 63c | 240$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 60c | 230.9$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 27c | 223.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 51c | 208$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.23 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 204.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…b958backed No | 49c | 199.98$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x787d…a409backed Yes | 52c | 193.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 175.06$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked No | 42c | 166.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.61 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 33c | 165.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d32…cc64backed No | 77c | 160$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked No | 67c | 139.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 60c | 137.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e95…b303backed Yes | 48c | 109$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 101$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d2…4697backed Yes | 38c | 95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…6797backed No | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 48c | 94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 66c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 53c | 75.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 23c | 75.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d7…2bf1backed Yes | 33c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 41c | 56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 41c | 53.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd3…1fa0backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcb…b8f0backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 58c | 49.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf90b…5583backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa1…fffdbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 65c | 39.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…8abdbacked No | 30c | 38.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca7…9bccbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0248backed Yes | 57c | 19.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ec…c52cbacked Yes | 57c | 18.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…e0ddbacked No | 66c | 15.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $465 end of January?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $405 end of January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 end of January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $495 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $510 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $525 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $570 end of January?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $585 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.