Earnings · resolved market
Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7082edf8efdceff4c004319f03fc573e203e6ecf54a3bf396c68ecf807876c65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 28c | 935.31$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.49 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 40c | 756.4$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.53 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 44c | 699.91$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.95 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…eb90backed Yes | 75c | 668.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd00…4fc0backed Yes | 62c | 306.33$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.53 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 49c | 305.95$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98a…9dbfbacked Yes | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 48c | 200.47$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.82 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked No | 43c | 199.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed Yes | 48c | 176.52$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 172.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked No | 47c | 159.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +12.8wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xa803…2949backed Yes | 66c | 152.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…f04abacked Yes | 61c | 148$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 34c | 135.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed Yes | 50c | 120.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a7c1backed Yes | 52c | 110$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…daeebacked Yes | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 61c | 109.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Yes | 64c | 98.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…d351backed Yes | 54c | 96.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 62c | 96.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed Yes | 52c | 96.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed No | 39c | 93.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 84.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 63c | 79.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 52c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…4aa5backed Yes | 64c | 62.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 47c | 55.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c75abacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0418…966ebacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 39c | 46.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed Yes | 46c | 43.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f59…a2cbbacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59cd…716fbacked Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…bf1ebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 47c | 31.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…4053backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa195…24fcbacked Yes | 51c | 26.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…49d5backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 23.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…89d1backed Yes | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…4e4dbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8369…5e03backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…e1f4backed No | 62c | 19.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb5…b3a4backed Yes | 54c | 18.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3997…dd0fbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf77f…dd76backed Yes | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20f…fcaabacked No | 60c | 16.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.