TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

ChatGPT Outage by March 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,405

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,405 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ae7…3e12backed No57c2,753$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.094736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes64c2,670$1,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.747946.8%37 W · 42 L+10.0wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+17.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7c6…1434backed No35c2,500$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb15a…a83fbacked No62c2,239$1,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes43c2,187$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.396334.9%22 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe937…d46abacked Yes54c2,158$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.742157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes40c1,901$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.213810.5%4 W · 34 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes35c1,833$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.0920731.9%66 W · 141 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes13c1,775$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.375547.3%26 W · 29 L+7.8wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+23.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes32c1,443$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.3220130.3%61 W · 140 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes66c1,062$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.15343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6f6…3075backed No58c1,000$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+33%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd923…f400backed No65c919.98$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1b…1419backed No74c835.4$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.336336.5%23 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes47c802.94$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.652339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73ff…c537backed No69c700.78$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.151330.8%4 W · 9 L-4.2wins-0.32per pick63cpaid-53.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes2c658.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0921713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes33c647.1$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.2812050.8%61 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa881…cd20backed Yes34c642.95$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.651650%8 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+50.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No54c605.44$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.98650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No57c429.74$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.996659.1%39 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x59c7…4cccbacked No39c393.88$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.22475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+67.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes15c323.62$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.259333.3%31 W · 62 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa76b…8a50backed Yes8c266.65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.672133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes12c250$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.52030%6 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee2…e71fbacked Yes8c242.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.89955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+36.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No8c242.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.847035.7%25 W · 45 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+71.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes41c240.59$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6757426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed Yes23c230.02$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.715221.2%11 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8292…0fbdbacked No76c226.63$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.01955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c6…66a2backed No65c225.64$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.18257.3%47 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6f2…8961backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38cf…7148backed Yes34c200$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671266.7%8 W · 4 L+4.6wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+138.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes29c196.53$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9525122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x844a…5f53backed No42c177.57$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.414544.4%20 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed No63c176.18$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.572222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-58.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb187…0ab8backed Yes16c166$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d2…0bc0backed Yes15c163.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5726…10f5backed No16c160.24$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40f…f707backed No63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed Yes18c153.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.292259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No18c153$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.761867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes59c150$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.52536%9 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes41c149.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.213738%52 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2f5…e99bbacked Yes70c143.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9998…e858backed No29c137.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.332254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+70.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf3d…b13abacked Yes46c135.51$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbef…9ab0backed No69c134.79$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.981361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x398e…3752backed No54c128.41$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.412744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7602…2775backed Yes15c125.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+67.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked No10c120$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1086536.9%24 W · 41 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+55.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e7b…9cd5backed No61c113.89$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Yes13c113.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.22133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-54.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c0…d72dbacked Yes46c109.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+63.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b27…7495backed No46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89fc…c1d4backed No62c106.09$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes45c104.74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4320418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed Yes41c100.1$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.642147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd898…aaf1backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144537.8%17 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfde…4006backed No47c99.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb35…ea7cbacked Yes43c93.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No37c91.74$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.621,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No60c87.78$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8220544.4%91 W · 114 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes16c87.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.76425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes43c86.76$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3319834.8%69 W · 129 L-23.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.387540%30 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed Yes53c76.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4414643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed No77c76.38$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.833956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+304.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1571…76e8backed No44c69.02$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.61366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe593…8692backed No75c68$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5caa…953fbacked No30c67.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+56.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes53c66.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1617350.3%87 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3d8…be6ebacked No60c66.28$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.283100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes41c66.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.973432.4%11 W · 23 L-7.8wins-0.23per pick55cpaid-47.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x96ac…9938backed No77c65.71$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba85…61c3backed No55c62.62$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5dc…0854backed No60c61.6$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked Yes50c60.67$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.222748.1%13 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes19c59.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2647938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c6…8390backed No53c53.57$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228c…0fb0backed No56c53.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe98…2566backed No65c53.46$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80a1…68bfbacked No58c51.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.55633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-49.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeeb7…891ebacked No59c50.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.434100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+78.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ba9…adfbbacked Yes64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcea8…1f9fbacked No42c47.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaf6…90bbbacked No43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes25c46.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.512250%11 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed No39c45.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.62317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+478.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No71c44.04$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.871258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x165a…3975backed No60c41.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.671163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes50c41.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.395731.6%18 W · 39 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-30.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x01ad…9e91backed No49c40.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.991050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes44c40.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.988720.7%18 W · 69 L-19.3wins-0.22per pick43cpaid-64.6%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xe5ca…29bfbacked No49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes48c40.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.576331.7%20 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No46c40.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7719120.9%40 W · 151 L-20.8wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-57.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe785…e267backed No37c40.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+167.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…c22cbacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.