World Politics · resolved market
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde52badd52a816ddd596afd002b63920df38788e2223817c84e63f13099918de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $272,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $307,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $272,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c10…d7b3backed No | 52c | 14,534$7,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,600.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7f…f3cdbacked No | 13c | 12,606$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 46c | 10,708$4,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,760.44 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 9,341$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.65 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14bc…aa14backed No | 8c | 7,433$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 7c | 5,359$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.54 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 56c | 4,818$2,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,104.76 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7a…201abacked Yes | 75c | 4,729$3,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.68 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…adafbacked No | 4c | 4,667$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +319.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf823…3005backed No | 16c | 4,430$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…0795backed No | 28c | 3,723$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…225ebacked No | 18c | 3,683$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed No | 6c | 3,676$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 39c | 3,561$1,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.21 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 13c | 3,317$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.44 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea9…386ebacked No | 11c | 2,808$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 6c | 2,781$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.07 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19fb…5700backed No | 4c | 2,661$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…62bdbacked Yes | 52c | 1,917$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 33c | 1,873$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.57 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 5c | 1,864$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Yes | 49c | 1,700$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 6c | 1,609$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.43 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 1,518$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.86 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…6c15backed No | 11c | 1,417$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.92 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…60adbacked No | 9c | 1,361$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2273…2098backed No | 17c | 1,312$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 76c | 1,300$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.95 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…23adbacked Yes | 78c | 1,277$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…79a3backed No | 22c | 1,270$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 58c | 1,259$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.89 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 8c | 1,233$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c7…6ff8backed No | 7c | 1,165$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 7c | 1,094$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked No | 6c | 1,051$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…9782backed No | 13c | 1,034$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 3c | 999.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 4c | 999.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 49c | 986.13$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.24 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe231…4e3ebacked No | 45c | 865.1$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e69…ba48backed No | 10c | 808.74$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 8c | 804.3$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67a…9b98backed Yes | 52c | 800$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc02…f89cbacked No | 51c | 800$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 45c | 795.77$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.98 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 8c | 751$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ab…25dbbacked No | 8c | 740.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128d…bc47backed No | 8c | 733.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8372…6d56backed No | 6c | 729.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3912…3c4ebacked Yes | 62c | 706.12$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 4c | 694.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed No | 8c | 685.51$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…aeecbacked No | 8c | 674.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 22c | 663.7$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.55 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df7…f332backed Yes | 46c | 653.26$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dc…f34ebacked No | 11c | 642.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 632.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 11c | 625.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9835…6d8ebacked No | 22c | 605.89$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 9c | 600$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 44c | 600$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 27cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc48…e72dbacked No | 5c | 580.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed No | 4c | 576.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…b2ebbacked No | 4c | 552.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 51c | 535.29$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed No | 7c | 520.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…3178backed No | 5c | 516.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 508.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…e007backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…5c5ebacked No | 45c | 483.39$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 53c | 466.67$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.27 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1d…8a73backed No | 49c | 457.95$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.65 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c1…275ebacked Yes | 45c | 454.48$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 24c | 445.75$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7eb…423bbacked No | 49c | 445.28$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 50c | 442.74$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.64 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x926e…f075backed No | 4c | 437.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0132…c314backed No | 13c | 437$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…f375backed Yes | 73c | 405$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…cbc1backed No | 7c | 400.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…b5c0backed No | 5c | 397.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de2…441dbacked Yes | 51c | 388.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 42c | 377.72$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.72 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2449…3799backed No | 25c | 362$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…93ffbacked No | 26c | 344.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd3…2ae1backed No | 6c | 341.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…9be3backed No | 6c | 340.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dad…90a1backed No | 28c | 330$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5275…7ddabacked Yes | 55c | 320$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a48…37b3backed No | 25c | 319.17$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 309$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.71 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa01a…bb20backed Yes | 73c | 302.32$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 73c | 301.1$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.35 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 41c | 294.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.23 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 289.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed No | 5c | 285.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 279.96$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.31 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.