Poker · resolved market
Will Patrik Antonius win at Hustler Casino on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa56dbf46e7a60f755fad49d0e12a1ee58717dc4b98a4e2c8674082fbe1e060cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 34c | 1,096$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…990dbacked No | 66c | 999$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 46c | 871$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 54c | 763$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 42c | 632.08$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22ec…4477backed No | 47c | 624$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…4674backed Yes | 53c | 605$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 34c | 571$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 58c | 517.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…52cfbacked No | 66c | 447$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked No | 66c | 319$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 34c | 290$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x656c…af94backed Yes | 34c | 283$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 66c | 283$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 38c | 269$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes | 62c | 269$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…02c0backed No | 66c | 206$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d82…ea1fbacked Yes | 73c | 194.01$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 42c | 174.14$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…50a5backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…1668backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes | 34c | 111$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…9ed1backed Yes | 54c | 108$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5150…7f58backed No | 46c | 87.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…cf9abacked No | 16c | 84.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…f029backed Yes | 61c | 82.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed No | 66c | 82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 66c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 36c | 43.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 50c | 40.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…38c0backed No | 48c | 35.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6787…8884backed Yes | 34c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 51c | 24.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.