Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,960 on the final trading day of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ccb0bd41750b7562a938e4788a3512dbe9e51b132c72f00e142ecc3abcf4b28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,463$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 31c | 3,621$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,498.49 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 64c | 2,987$1,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.17 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 40c | 863$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.75 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 17c | 678$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.18 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…3f37backed Yes | 75c | 587.25$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 40c | 446$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.31 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 45c | 433$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.58 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dc…b08ebacked Yes | 50c | 383.56$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8622…cdc9backed No | 59c | 381$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 17c | 361.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0217…1193backed No | 36c | 295.6$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 65c | 266.63$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.03 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…9689backed Yes | 4c | 235.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked No | 55c | 220$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 60c | 212.15$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e8…06eebacked Yes | 60c | 196$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 41c | 189$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.49 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed No | 40c | 182.09$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed Yes | 61c | 180$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 61c | 157.65$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.02 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 50c | 150.49$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 56c | 129.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 13c | 116.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked No | 60c | 103$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…e4dabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6227…5951backed Yes | 60c | 97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…f362backed Yes | 52c | 94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 60c | 88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 81.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 70c | 74.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed No | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 27c | 69.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 57c | 66.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…6fbdbacked No | 46c | 65.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed No | 47c | 62.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…e775backed No | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…e684backed Yes | 33c | 59.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04d6…8718backed Yes | 42c | 47.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d5…1981backed Yes | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9e91backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 32c | 33.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…742dbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…32e6backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,960 on the final trading day of January 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,600 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,760 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,840 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,900 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,040 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.