Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,040 on the final trading day of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb2331364e0329928eb023dbefa44e4b1e96ede2107d0ea206208e2c0ec2d6e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef0f…40cfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,143$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…1a81backed Yes | 3c | 1,856$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 22c | 1,806$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.34 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.37 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…b97dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,011$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 26c | 815.05$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.8 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 756.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 49c | 519$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.9 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 14c | 449.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…19f4backed Yes | 18c | 383.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…b0c1backed No | 64c | 316.36$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 21c | 295.83$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 50c | 270$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…2440backed Yes | 14c | 255.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked Yes | 9c | 246.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 11c | 205.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…cc4cbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…2da9backed Yes | 13c | 198.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 8c | 191.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 171.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0557…0a3ebacked Yes | 25c | 153.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…b4d0backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 124.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 29c | 117.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 49c | 116$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…c4a9backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 53c | 83.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed No | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 20c | 76.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x487c…b3c7backed Yes | 32c | 76.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc15e…4fa4backed Yes | 20c | 75.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 50c | 48.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83dc…b08ebacked No | 68c | 48.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…d646backed Yes | 23c | 47.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc068…e07ebacked Yes | 30c | 43.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339b…e865backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…8646backed No | 75c | 33.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 46c | 31.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x439e…f15dbacked Yes | 33c | 31.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…41eebacked No | 74c | 29.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…888fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,040 on the final trading day of January 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,600 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,760 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,840 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,900 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,960 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.