Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,900 on the final trading day of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42a43c8ff1a48dea74fffc1ef9f29a72f9acaf29af43bd949aa3b8ca0cf5ca58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 4,285$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 26c | 747.09$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.71 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe869…c67abacked No | 21c | 708$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked No | 14c | 700$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…b014backed No | 42c | 680$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 636.53$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…066fbacked No | 12c | 560.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked No | 43c | 553$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.08 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…bbf2backed No | 52c | 523.42$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…b3b0backed Yes | 58c | 350$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d1…d768backed Yes | 58c | 330$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 76c | 320$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…4557backed Yes | 79c | 297$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 25c | 289.24$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83dc…b08ebacked No | 19c | 285$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…ea7dbacked Yes | 79c | 272.4$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb938…8b88backed No | 18c | 272.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 24c | 249.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.81 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 40c | 234$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 214.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 8c | 211.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked Yes | 77c | 175.3$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…4500backed No | 45c | 174.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714a…e775backed No | 34c | 171.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked Yes | 75c | 149$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 51c | 101.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…e4dabacked No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6f…2b6fbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bac…19a6backed No | 21c | 94.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 13c | 85.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…ea81backed No | 34c | 79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 20c | 72.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81b…edfbbacked No | 43c | 72.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked No | 43c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 41c | 28.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04d6…8718backed Yes | 59c | 28.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…742dbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,900 on the final trading day of January 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,600 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,760 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,840 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,960 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,040 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.