Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,840 on the final trading day of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb00c5b4bf8ba22e8e1ba7ac9d65e31d570b3761c00fd5a18e08554fbd167c6a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 11c | 1,260$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x298b…066fbacked No | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 36c | 975.26$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 650.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked No | 5c | 493.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.37 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 79c | 284.82$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb938…8b88backed No | 11c | 282.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 22c | 274.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x292d…4500backed Yes | 80c | 271.24$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.52 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8520…2dc3backed No | 33c | 266.58$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640a…23efbacked Yes | 67c | 266.58$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…9de3backed No | 40c | 259$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 10c | 216.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6f…2b6fbacked No | 24c | 216.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…e684backed No | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 5c | 200.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 14c | 196.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 185$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…9a42backed No | 26c | 175$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…4943backed No | 35c | 158.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7be…9c25backed Yes | 65c | 158.68$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 12c | 157.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed No | 12c | 152.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked No | 27c | 147$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…b0c1backed No | 12c | 135.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 80c | 135$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…b756backed Yes | 65c | 98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 56.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…6d70backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 68c | 38.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16e8…311cbacked Yes | 74c | 27.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,840 on the final trading day of January 2026?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,600 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,760 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,900 on the final trading day of January 2026?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,960 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $7,040 on the final trading day of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.